CAGNY 2026 day one: CPG giants chart course through consumer headwinds

By Sri Rajagopalan & Peter V.S. Bond, The CPG Guys

ORLANDO — The Consumer Analyst Group of New York conference opened its 2026 edition with a revealing cross-section of where the world's largest food and beverage companies stand heading into the back half of the decade. Seven major presentations — from General Mills, Conagra, Coca-Cola, JBS, Unilever, Mondelēz, and McCormick — painted a picture of an industry simultaneously navigating near-term consumer softness and investing for long-term structural growth. Several themes emerged with striking consistency: the pressure of value-seeking consumers, the growing centrality of AI and digital execution, and the discipline of Revenue Growth Management as a margin and volume recovery tool. But not every company told the same story with equal sophistication, and the gaps were instructive.

General Mills: Necessary Reshaping in a Soft Environment

General Mills opened with a grounded acknowledgment of near-term reality. Category softness and financially stressed consumers are pressuring volumes across North America Retail, where promotional buying has increased and consumers are navigating price cliffs around the $3.99–$4.00 threshold. The company's FY26 organic sales guidance of -2% to -1.5% reflects that pressure honestly.

But the underlying narrative is one of deliberate portfolio reshaping. Nearly 30% of the net sales base has turned over since FY18 through divestitures and acquisitions, and the company expects long-term portfolio growth of 2–3%, supported by stronger international and foodservice exposure. Eight billion-dollar brands anchor a $19B FY25 revenue base, and 80% of the North America Pet portfolio is holding or growing dollar share — a bright spot management clearly leans on.

What stood out most was the rigor of General Mills' Revenue Growth Management approach. Two-thirds of the portfolio sits below price cliffs, price/mix improvement is showing in Q3 trends, and ~90% of elasticities are performing at or better than expected. Price/Pack Architecture is expected to generate 2x net sales versus last year. The company is also deploying AI explicitly as an innovation accelerator, with digital consumer personas, rapid content creation, and agentic feedback tools embedded into the innovation and marketing pipeline. FY26 net sales from new products are expected to grow 25% versus last year, anchored in bold flavors, better-for-you benefits, and familiar formats.

The "Remarkable Experience Framework" — spanning product superiority, packaging, brand communication, omnichannel execution, and compelling value — gives General Mills a structured lens through which to manage its recovery. Pound share is holding or growing in 8 of its top 10 categories. The execution story is tightening even as the top line faces headwinds.

Conagra: Volume Recovery with AI-Enabled Precision

Conagra came in with a sharper volume recovery story than its opening-slot peer. While L52W volume was down 2.1%, the last four weeks showed +2.4% growth, and 75% of Frozen and Snacks brands are holding or gaining volume share. Frozen, the crown jewel, shows 83% share hold or gain — meaningful progress for a portfolio that has faced sustained pressure.

The company's portfolio architecture is deliberately simplified: Frozen and Snacks as growth engines, Staples as cash generation. Innovation is a genuine strength — $1.4B in average annual retail sales from innovation over the past five years, with FY25 launches generating over $300MM and +27% dollar growth versus prior-year launches. Health-forward reformulation is structural: 100% of Frozen will be free from artificial colors by 2027, and 65% of portfolio sales already carry cleaner-label attributes.

Conagra's AI integration is one of the more concrete articulations on Day One. The company is using AI to cleanse, connect, and enrich disparate data sets, enabling real-time pattern recognition and decision-ready insights. Promotion optimization powered by AI delivered +9 points of promo lift in Q2 FY26 versus prior year. Project Catalyst embeds AI across end-to-end processes to enhance revenue, margin, and cash flow simultaneously.

The consumer segmentation work is equally sharp. Conagra explicitly identifies two consumer poles — lower-income just-in-time shoppers and upper-income stock-up pantry builders — and tailors price-pack architecture accordingly. Gen Z's projected $9T in spending by 2030 is framed as a growth opportunity driven by bold flavors, portability, and better-for-you demand. GLP-1 adoption reshaping protein and portion dynamics is also factored into the innovation pipeline. FY26 guidance of -1% to +1% organic net sales, with 11.0–11.5% operating margin and ~115% free cash flow conversion, reflects disciplined execution under continued top-line uncertainty.

Coca-Cola: Scale, Digital, and the Local-Global Paradox

If General Mills and Conagra are navigating recovery, Coca-Cola is operating from a position of structural strength. Since 2017, the company has delivered 7% average organic revenue growth, and the long-term algorithm targets 4–6% organic revenue growth supported by balanced volume and price/mix contribution. Thirty-two billion-dollar brands spanning sparkling, juice, water, sports, RTD tea, coffee, and alcohol RTD give the portfolio unusual resilience.

The digital story at Coca-Cola is among the most developed on Day One. The company describes digital as its "next superpower," and the numbers are striking: approximately 5 billion connected identities across consumers, retailers, creators, and partners; 15–50% projected media effectiveness improvement in pilot programs; and 4–6% sales uplift from suggested digital ordering. The Fuelight360 platform integrates sales, weather, economic, marketing, and execution data to dynamically optimize media spend, trade investment, cooler placement, and point-of-sale deployment in real time. A newly formalized Chief Digital Officer role signals this is enterprise-level commitment, not a pilot program.

What makes Coca-Cola's presentation distinctive is the "localness at scale" paradox it has apparently resolved. The FIFA World Cup example — different cities, customized packages, localized advertising, integrated marketing and commercial activation — illustrates how a 33-million-outlet, 2.2-billion-servings-per-day system can still execute with granular local relevance. The franchise model separates brand building and innovation (handled by KO) from execution and RGM (handled by bottlers), creating clear accountability at scale.

RGM discipline is embedded in the financial model. A $0.05 mix improvement generates approximately $140M in operating income — a figure management cited to underscore the precision of pack/price management. 2026 guidance of 4–5% organic revenue growth, 7–8% comparable EPS growth, and ~90–95% free cash flow conversion reflects a business in structural growth mode.

Mondelēz: Real Challenges, Real Ambition

Mondelēz had arguably the most honest portfolio challenge narrative of the day. Volume declined 2.9% in 2025 and adjusted EPS fell 14.6%, both driven substantially by cocoa-led pricing pressure in Europe and consumer pullback in North America. Snacking inflation is up 42% since 2020 versus 30% wage growth — a gap the company named directly as a headwind to volume recovery.

But the long-term portfolio logic is sound. Biscuits ($128B global market, ranked #1 globally), Chocolate ($147B, ranked #2), Cakes & Pastries, and Snack Bars collectively grow 1.4x faster than other snack categories. The revenue mix has shifted from 59% core categories in 2012 to 80% today, with a target of 90% longer-term. Ten acquisitions since 2018 — Tate's, Perfect Snacks, CLIF, Grenade, Ricolino, and others — have systematically expanded the portfolio into Snack Bars, Cakes & Pastries, and better-for-you segments, with management reporting the vast majority are on or above plan.

Price/Pack Architecture is a recurring lever across all geographies. In North America, fresh stacks formats address affordability pressure. In Europe, entry sizes target immediate consumption occasions in Discounters and Supermarkets. In Emerging Markets, low unit packs drive penetration in price-sensitive markets like India, Brazil, and Mexico. The Emerging Markets engine delivered a 13.4% organic net revenue CAGR over five years — a number that justifies the company's geographic diversification thesis.

The notable gap in the Mondelēz presentation is AI. Unlike peers, there is no explicit mention of artificial intelligence as a strategic lever, with technology references limited to supply chain modernization and machine learning-led suggested ordering in India. For a company navigating a recovery inflection, the absence of AI articulation stands out relative to Day One peers.

JBS and Unilever: Scale Stories Still Under Construction

JBS and Unilever round out a portion of Day One with presentations that are more foundational than transformational. JBS presents a compelling scale story — revenue growth from ~$51B in 2019 to ~$83B LTM — anchored in a multi-protein portfolio across 26 countries and an M&A engine deploying ~$3.5B in acquisitions since 2019. Brand-level metrics are genuine: Just Bare's 45% sales CAGR and Seara's growth from 10.9% to 26.7% share in Brazilian frozen pizza suggest real organic momentum in value-added segments. But the presentation lacks sophistication in RGM, consumer segmentation, and — most notably — any mention of AI, a gap that institutional investors will increasingly flag.

Unilever is restructuring with clarity of purpose: 30 Power Brands representing 78% of turnover, a deliberate pivot toward Beauty & Wellbeing and Personal Care, and a target of exceeding 50% of turnover from premium products. Brand and Marketing Investment rising from 13.1% to 16.1% signals reinvestment in brand pull. The commitment to at least 2% Underlying Volume Growth, with 30 Power Brands already delivering a 3.3% three-year UVG CAGR, suggests the volume-led growth pivot is gaining traction. Like Mondelēz, however, AI is not explicitly surfaced as a capability, and omnichannel thinking — while forward-looking toward 50% digital commerce — lacks the channel-level granularity that more mature frameworks demonstrate.

McCormick: Flavor Authority Meets Digital Ambition

McCormick closed Day One with a presentation that punched above its weight in strategic sophistication relative to its $6.8B revenue footprint. Operating across 150+ countries with leading positions in herbs and spices, hot sauce, mustard, and Mexican hot sauce, the company framed its growth story around flavor as an enduring consumer obsession — and backed that claim with compelling proprietary data. A Global Pulse Survey across 10 countries found 71% of consumers excited to experiment with new flavors, while Circana panel data showed Gen Z and Millennial volume consumption up 11.2% versus 4.7% for all households — a demographic tailwind McCormick is well-positioned to capture.

Innovation momentum is real and accelerating. The company delivered 2x more innovation in 2025 versus 2023, with a pipeline that spans the Schwartz Air Fryer platform, Cholula's mainstream Mexican expansion, and culturally resonant limited editions tied to Harry Potter and Bridgerton. The willingness to lean into pop culture IP as a flavor occasion driver reflects a brand that understands how purchase decisions increasingly originate outside the store.

On AI, McCormick delivered one of the more complete articulations of Day One — notable given its smaller scale relative to Coca-Cola or Conagra. The company is deploying AI across both growth and operations: expanded AI formulation tools for faster product development, smart advertising for precision targeting, and agentic commerce readiness on the growth side; AI-enabled demand, supply, and financial forecasting plus smart assistants embedded across business functions on the operations side. The framing of employees as being "empowered to use AI as a teammate" suggests cultural integration rather than just technology investment.

Omnichannel execution is also advancing with specificity. Total U.S. distribution points grew +4.1% in 2025, accelerating from +1.0% and +2.2% in prior years — a metric that reflects genuine shelf expansion rather than pricing math. The Frank's RedHot partnership with Taco Bell and DoorDash illustrates how McCormick is thinking about brand equity as a cross-channel asset, not just a retail proposition. TikTok Shop and social commerce are called out as explicit growth priorities, again reflecting demographic-forward thinking.

The near-term financial picture is more complicated. Tariff headwinds represent approximately a 5% operating income drag in FY26, constraining organic growth guidance to 1–3% for the year. But the company's 2015–2025 organic CAGR of 4% in constant currency — volume-led in recent years — and its 2027–2028 target of returning to 3–4% annual organic growth reflect a management team that views the current macro environment as a speed bump rather than a structural ceiling. Acquisitions contributed a 2% CAGR to net sales over the same decade, and the recent increase in the McCormick de Mexico stake is expected to be meaningfully accretive, contributing to 12–16% reported net sales growth guided for FY26.

Day One Themes: What CAGNY 2026 Is Really Telling Retailers

Across seven presentations, three organizing themes define the industry moment. First, consumer stress is real and acknowledged — value-seeking behavior, price sensitivity, and promotional dependence are not transient; they are the operating environment. Second, AI and digital execution are rapidly becoming table stakes, and the gap between companies that have integrated these capabilities into real business processes and those still describing ambitions is already visible. General Mills, Conagra, Coca-Cola, and McCormick all articulated specific AI applications tied to measurable outcomes; Mondelēz, Unilever, and JBS did not, and that gap will matter to investors. Third, Revenue Growth Management — through Price/Pack Architecture, elasticity management, and promotion optimization — is the lever separating companies that are protecting margin while restoring volume from those still choosing between the two.

For mass market retailers, Day One delivered a consistent message: the CPG partners investing in data, digital shelf integration, and consumer-level segmentation are the ones building durable volume momentum. The question heading into Day Two is whether that momentum is enough to offset the macro headwinds still pressing on the category.