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WASHINGTON – Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows modest retail sales gains in June despite an uneven pace of spending in recent months, National Retail Federation chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said.
“The path of household spending remains difficult to read,” Kleinhenz said. “Spending has been uneven but remains in good condition notwithstanding the slower pace of payrolls, subdued consumer confidence and price deflation for retail goods. Looking ahead, we expect consumer spending trends to continue even though they will likely be tempered by softening employment and income growth. Still-high interest rates are making purchases on credit more expensive and have discouraged new borrowing.”
The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in June were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 2.3% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year in May.
June’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.9% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 1.3% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.2% year-over-year for the first six months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales were up 0.3% seasonally adjusted month over month in June and up 3.07% year over year. That compared with increases of 1.2% month over month and 2.88% year over year in May. Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year. NRF in March predicted that retail sales would reach at least $5.23 trillion in 2024.
