LOS ALTOS, Calif. — The U.S. retail landscape has entered a new era, with dollar stores and wholesale clubs rapidly reshaping shopper behavior and competitive dynamics, according to new data from Placer.ai. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have experienced a surge in foot traffic since 2019, chipping away at the dominance of Walmart and Target while redefining what value means to American consumers.
Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco Drive Growth
Visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased between 36.6% and 45.9% over the past six years. This growth has been driven not only by store expansion but also by higher visit frequency, showing that consumers are making these chains their main destinations rather than just occasional stops. In contrast, Walmart’s share of total visits across the five retail giants has fallen below 50%, down from 55.9% in 2019. Dollar General has now surpassed Target in total visits, marking a significant shift in the retail hierarchy.
Cross-Shopping Expands the Pie
Even as visit share has shifted, Walmart and Target remain key players. Shoppers still cross-visit Walmart more than any other retailer, making it the top secondary destination across the industry. Cross-shopping between chains has grown significantly since 2019, suggesting consumers are layering new retail stops into their routines rather than abandoning legacy giants altogether.
Different Missions, Different Niches
- Walmart continues to dominate essential, non-discretionary shopping in rural and semi-rural markets.
- Dollar General has expanded its role as a grocery stop by adding fresh produce, narrowing the gap with Walmart.
- Target has increased loyalty through Drive Up, same-day delivery, and exclusive brands, with frequent shopper rates rising from 20.1% to 23.6%.
- Costco has boosted traffic while maintaining stable loyalty, reinforcing its role as a bulk-buying destination for more affluent families.
- Dollar Tree is evolving from a quick-stop convenience store to a more frequent shopping option, thanks to its $1.25 price point and versatile urban, suburban, and rural footprint.
The Bigger Picture
The study finds that competition is no longer about dominating overall market share but about focusing on specific shopping missions: bulk stock-ups, quick trips, or family essentials. Retailers that refine and communicate these mission-based strategies may succeed in today’s fragmented yet growing retail market.
Key Takeaways according to Placer.ai
#1
The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
#2
Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed, so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
#3
Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
#4
Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
#5
Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
#6
Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
