December caps breakout year for online grocery

December 2025 marked a crucial turning point for online grocery shopping, with U.S. e-grocery sales soaring 32% year over year to a record $12.7 billion. The increase highlights that digital grocery shopping is no longer a niche option but has become a core consumer habit. Online’s share of total grocery spending rose to 19%, up 430 basis points from December 2024.

Data from Brick Meets Click indicate the increase was driven more by increased engagement from current shoppers than by attracting new customers, a change with significant implications for 2026 planning.

Frequency Is the New Loyalty

The December spike reflects structural behavior changes:

• Habit formation: Order frequency among monthly active users rose 8% YOY, extending a 16-month growth streak.
• High-volume users: More than half of monthly users placed three or more orders, a new high.
• Core cohort: Shoppers ages 30–44 led the gains, boosting frequency 17% YOY to 3.2 orders per month.

Basket Sizes Continue to Expand

Value rose alongside volume. Average order value (AOV) increased nearly 11% YOY across fulfillment methods:

• Ship-to-home: +14% AOV, supported by expanded same-day fresh options from Amazon.
• Pickup and delivery: Each posted ~9% AOV growth.

Affluent Shoppers Consolidate Spend Online

Income segmentation reveals widening gaps:

• High earners ($200k+): Online grocery spending has nearly doubled since December 2023.
• Middle income ($50k–$99.9k): Reported a slight pullback versus last year.

Strategic Outlook: Headwinds Ahead

Although 2025 ended on a celebratory note, competition continues to grow fiercer. David Bishop, a partner at Brick Meets Click, warned that the same structural changes driving growth will set higher standards in 2026, especially for regional operators.

“Structural shifts in shopping behavior drove much of eGrocery’s growth in 2025, and this will create stiffer headwinds in 2026, especially for regional grocers.”

As shoppers more often combine delivery, pickup, and ship-to-home options, regional players will need to improve their omnichannel execution to protect market share from mass merchants and Amazon in the coming year.