NEW YORK — U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to rise between 2.9% and 3.4% this season, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday forecast. That's down from last year’s 4.2% increase.
The consulting firm expects total sales between November and January to reach $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion, up from $1.57 trillion during the 2024 holiday period.
E-commerce is expected to remain a bright spot, with sales projected to climb 7% to 9%, totaling between $305 billion and $310.7 billion. That compares with an 8% increase in 2024, when online holiday sales reached an estimated $285 billion.
Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights, said income growth will play a critical role in shaping consumer spending this holiday season. “We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season,” Barua said. “Our research indicates that DPI is a sound predictor of retail sales and e-commerce sales. Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending.”
He added that while elevated inflation may dampen the volume of purchases, it is likely to boost the dollar value of retail sales.
Despite headwinds, Deloitte leaders see opportunity for retailers. “We expect this holiday season to demonstrate the resiliency of consumers as they continue to face economic uncertainty,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair at Deloitte and U.S. retail and consumer products leader. “Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power. Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses.”
The forecast underscores a slowing retail growth trajectory compared with recent years, but continued strength in digital channels and resilient consumer spending patterns suggest the holiday season will remain robust.
