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As the Consumer Price Index was rising at a rate of 7% or more per month over the past year, mass market retailers and their customers learned to cope with market conditions not present in this country for four decades. Despite some recent moderation in the inflation rate — it stood at 7.1% in November, after reaching a high of 9.1% last June — the problem is still very much with us, according to the National Retail Federation’s “Monthly Economic Review,” and “it remains in the pipeline.”
“This year starts with the possibility of easing inflation but also uncertainty,” says NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “There is no easy fix for inflation, and the Fed’s job of trying to bring down rising prices without damaging the labor market or the rest of the economy is not enviable.”
Even if Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues manage to keep the economy from falling into recession, food, drug and discount store operators will have to grapple with challenges that go beyond rising prices. Interest rate hikes, the Fed’s primary tool for reining in inflation, put additional pressure on borrowers, especially companies that are already highly leveraged. The stock market just ended its worst year since 2008, there are still some bumps in the CPG supply chain, and the strength of the labor market makes competition to recruit and retain talent all the more intense.
Retailers need to keep a close eye on the shifting attitudes of their customers, and, for the moment, they have reason to be cautiously optimistic. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index reached 108.3 in December, up from 101.4 a month earlier. The increase followed two straight months of decline. It’s a good bet that shopper sentiment will remain volatile, as people react to the interplay between inflation and interest rates, and other developments that impact their pocketbook.
The pinch that consumers experience when shopping for groceries and other essentials, combined with the prospect of a drawn-out battle before inflation is finally tamed, puts a premium on value at retail. That can be defined in any number of ways, but for the moment, at least, price is paramount. Chains with a long-standing commitment to low prices, including Walmart, Dollar General and Aldi, as well as such e-commerce merchants as Amazon, are well positioned to thrive during an inflationary period. Other mass marketers, whose appeal to consumers is centered on factors other than price, need to be cognizant of what their customers are currently faced with and find innovative ways to help them to manage their family budget.
