NEW YORK — U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to surpass $1.7 trillion this year, with e-commerce once again growing considerably faster than overall spending, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.
Deloitte projects retail sales will total between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion from November 2026 through January 2027, an increase of 4% to 4.8% from the comparable period a year earlier.
That would put growth roughly in line with or slightly ahead of last year, when holiday sales increased 4.1% to $1.63 trillion, according to U.S. Census Bureau data cited by Deloitte.
Online spending is expected to provide an important source of growth. Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales of between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion during the holiday period, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.5% to 8.4%.
E-commerce sales totaled an estimated $294 billion during the November 2025 through January 2026 period, an increase of 7.5%.
The forecast suggests consumers will continue spending during the holidays despite remaining highly attentive to value. Digital tools, promotions and comparison shopping are expected to play prominent roles as shoppers seek to stretch their holiday budgets.
Disposable personal income will be another key factor. Deloitte expects DPI to increase between 4.5% and 5.2% during the holiday season, which the firm views as an important predictor of both overall retail and e-commerce spending.
“Disposable personal income remains an important input to our holiday retail forecast,” said Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights. “We project DPI to grow between 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season, which we believe to be a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce sales.”
Barua said continued e-commerce growth should also be supported by consumers’ use of digital tools to research products, compare alternatives and complete purchases across categories.
For retailers, the forecast points to another holiday season in which capturing spending will depend heavily on demonstrating value as consumers move among brands and retailers in search of the best deals.
“Consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special for their friends and families, while also making deliberate choices about how they spend,” said Natalie Martini, Deloitte vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products leader.
“As they look to get more out of their dollars, we continue to see value-seeking behaviors across income levels, including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending,” Martini added. “These behaviors are expected to shape how consumers approach holiday shopping this season.”
Deloitte’s projections indicate that digital channels will continue gaining share of holiday spending. At the midpoint of the firm’s forecasts, total holiday retail sales would rise about 4.4%, while e-commerce would increase approximately 8%.
The outlook also underscores the importance of promotions and competitive pricing as retailers prepare for the critical year-end selling season. With consumers willing to switch brands and retailers to maximize their purchasing power, merchants will be competing not only for holiday dollars but for increasingly value-conscious shoppers willing to comparison shop before making a purchase.
