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The autumn holiday selling season is upon us — and clues are scarce as to which mass retailers will emerge in the best shape. Indeed, very little data has surfaced as to which products look to dominate, or which retailers appear most confident that the upcoming Christmas selling season will turn out well.
The soon-to-be-waged battle for sales will apparently pit individual retailers against each other — Walmart versus Target, Walgreens versus CVS — although chain drug retailers are preparing for battle against such companies as dollar stores and, yes, discount chains.
For now, let’s look first at the nation’s chain drug retailers to determine how effectively they will compete on low-end Christmas merchandise. As in the past, they appear to be on solid ground with such categories as greeting cards, Christmas decorations, gift sets, candy and the like. As in the past, these convenience stores can compete effectively where the selection is ample and the choice limited.
Drug stores should also perform well during a holiday selling season with no additional days, and one that is not interrupted or lengthened by weekends. Finally, the prevalence of drug stores should work to their advantage — and to the disadvantage of discounters, the retail trade class that is least represented by number of stores.
Discounters, however, have their own strengths. They will certainly make more of a holiday statement, transforming their stores to suit the event in a way their competitors will not duplicate. And they will engage in the holiday selling season more completely and dramatically than their competition. This will be especially true of Christmas, though it also applies to Thanksgiving and Halloween.
Finally, in big-ticket merchandise they have a clear advantage, namely their willingness and ability to commit to high-end products and categories. Competitors, on the other hand, traditionally shy away from high-end products, preferring to offer enough fill-in merchandise to bring customers to their stores several times during the holiday selling season.
That brings us to the grocery segment. Grocers have one big advantage, one they’ve grown up with: Food is the centerpiece of any holiday festival, and grocery retailers have no competition when it comes to selling groceries. This year that advantage is bigger than ever, measured in variety, creativity and value.
Each retail class, then, has its advantages heading into the holidays. But questions remain, mostly those revolving around the shopper. These questions will be further complicated by the upcoming presidential election, one which will largely determine the customer’s mood heading into Thanksgiving and Christmas.
At present, that mood is difficult to predict, except to say that a win by Clinton will set up one equation, a victory by Trump an another. Still to be determined, of course, is how those equations will play out at retail during the holiday shopping season. Historically, the dawn of a new presidency is generally an upbeat event, though this year’s race is still too close to predict. It is further complicated by a murky global picture that might well grow murkier before Christmas.
Finally, there remains the age-old question: Which products will shoppers purchase? Will the home get all the attention? Or, on the other hand, will the children get the bulk of attention — and gifts? Or will shoppers’ cash be split between home and family? The corollary will also come into play: How much money will families be willing to spend? That depends on so many other pre-Christmas events, many of which have already been noted here.
So, to conclude, the holiday selling season is anybody’s guess — and the mass retailing community is as mystified as any other segment of the U.S. population.
