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NEW YORK — Retailers shouldn’t have high hopes for holiday sales growth, which likely will be slim to moderate, according to two retail sales forecasts.
Retailers shouldn’t have high hopes for holiday sales growth, which likely will be slim to moderate, according to two retail sales forecasts.
Deloitte’s Retail & Distribution practice pegs November through January holiday sales (excluding automobiles and fuel) at $963 billion to $967 billion, a year-over-year gain of 4% to 4.5%, in line with last year’s 4.5% increase.
In addition, Deloitte estimates a 12.5% to 13% rise in nonstore sales, about 75% of which come from online channels, catalogues and interactive television. Mobile-influenced retail store sales will account for 8% of holiday retail sales, Deloitte predicted.
"Shoppers researching their purchases electronically — via their PC, tablet or mobile phone — are increasingly influencing in-store sales," explained Alison Paul, vice chairman at Deloitte LLP and Retail & Distribution sector leader.
Meanwhile, ShopperTrak predicts retail sales of general merchandise, apparel, and accessories, furniture and other sales (GAFO) to edge up 2.4%, less than the 3% gain last year.
Still, shoppers are expected to visit fewer stores this holiday season, and customer traffic is forecast to dip 1.4%, after a 2.5% uptick in the 2012 holiday season.
"Although the economy continues to recover slowly, consumers remain cautious about spending and are not ready to splurge," observed Bill Martin, founder of ShopperTrak.
