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Washington, D.C.—Despite fluctuating economic indicators and a recent slowdown in job growth, the National Retail Federation (NRF) remains confident in its forecast of steady retail sales growth for the 2024 holiday season. NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz says the organization remains confident in its original forecast, issued in October, that projected a holiday sales increase of 2.5% to 3.5%, totaling between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.
“The economy is fundamentally healthy and continues to hold momentum,” Kleinhenz stated in NRF’s November Monthly Economic Review. While recent data show slower job gains and a slight dip in GDP growth, Kleinhenz attributed this to temporary disruptions, including hurricanes and labor strikes, and said that broader economic indicators remain strong.
October’s job growth data revealed an addition of just 12,000 jobs. However, Kleinhenz pointed out a three-month average of 104,000 jobs added, underscoring resilient employment trends. Meanwhile, GDP growth held steady at a robust 2.8% in Q3, marking ten consecutive quarters of “solid” expansion, driven by consumer spending.
Wages and salaries rose 3.9% year over year as of September, providing a buffer against inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key inflation measure, fell to 2.1% in September, nearing the Federal Reserve’s target. “Households are starting the season in decent financial shape,” Kleinhenz noted, with rising home values, steady income, and a strong stock market contributing to consumer confidence.
Reflecting on the broader economic landscape, Kleinhenz voiced optimism about continued economic resilience through year-end. “This holiday season looks very good,” he said, underscoring NRF’s faith in sustained consumer spending.
