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WASHINGTON—Retail sales in November are keeping the holiday shopping season on track to meet the National Retail Federation's (NRF) forecast for a 2.5% to 3.5% increase over 2023. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau released today reveals a 0.7% seasonally adjusted month-over-month growth in overall retail sales and a 3.8% unadjusted increase year-over-year.
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NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz highlighted the strong start to the season, noting, "These numbers combined with better-than-expected October sales are evidence that consumer spending continues to fuel the economy. Job and wage gains, modest inflation, and healthy balance sheets have led to solid holiday spending."
Core Spending Highlights
Excluding automobiles, gasoline stations, and restaurants, NRF's core retail sales grew by 0.4% month over month in November and 3.8% year over year. This performance supports the NRF's forecast, which defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31. Notably, nearly 60% of shoppers had already started buying gifts by early November.
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The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions and using anonymized credit and debit card data, corroborated the Census Bureau's figures. It reported a 1.43% year-over-year increase in November, despite a slight 0.19% month-over-month decline from October's robust performance.
Delayed Sales Boost
Kleinhenz acknowledged that this year's late Thanksgiving pushed significant shopping events like Cyber Monday into December. However, he stressed that spending remains robust: "The season's pace of spending is clearly on track to reach our forecast."
Broader Implications for the Retail Industry
NRF's data, updated monthly, continues to underscore the resilience of U.S. consumers amid economic fluctuations. Core retail sales for the first 11 months of 2024 were up 3.5% year over year, consistent with NRF's annual growth projection.
As retailers prepare for the final stretch of the holiday season, the NRF emphasizes that the industry remains a vital driver of the U.S. economy and that holiday spending reflects consumer confidence and economic stability.
