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NEW YORK — The nation’s busiest container ports are bracing for a surge in imports as retailers scramble to outpace looming disruptions from a potential strike and higher tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration. According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, the rush to frontload goods could drive record import volumes through the spring.
“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy, and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.
Talks between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance have stalled, threatening a strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports when a temporary contract extension expires on January 15. Meanwhile, Trump’s promise to sharply increase tariffs after his inauguration on January 20 has added pressure on retailers to stockpile goods.
October’s port activity underscored the trend, with U.S. ports handling 2.25 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), up 9.3% year over year despite a slight month-to-month dip. November and December are projected to see year-over-year increases of 14.4% and 14.3%, respectively. The total for 2024 is expected to hit 25.6 million TEUs, a robust 14.8% increase from 2023.
Retailers face a ticking clock as they attempt to import goods ahead of potential disruptions. Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett warned that the window for action is narrowing. “The prospects of reaching a quick agreement on automation at the ports are not looking good, and shippers are racing against time to mitigate the risks of both a strike and tariffs,” Hackett said.
NRF has called on both the labor and management sides of the port negotiations to return to the bargaining table, stressing the potential economic fallout of a strike. Simultaneously, the group is urging the incoming administration to consider a strategic approach to tariffs that avoids broad impacts on consumer goods.
With January imports forecast at 2.2 million TEUs—a 12% year-over-year increase—the import surge shows no sign of slowing. Retailers are hoping that the early shipments will protect them from what could be a tumultuous start to 2025, as the combined weight of labor uncertainty and trade policy reshaping threatens to rattle supply chains and consumer markets alike.
