WASHINGTON — Retail sales edged downward in June as persistent consumer concerns about trade policy, tariffs and the broader economy led to more cautious spending, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions.
Seasonally adjusted total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, fell 0.33% in June from the prior month. That marked the first monthly decline since February and followed a 0.49% increase in May. Year over year, June sales were up 3.19%, but that too reflected a slowdown compared to the 4.44% annual growth recorded the month prior.
Core retail sales — which exclude restaurants as well as auto dealers and gas stations — dipped 0.32% month over month but remained 3.36% higher than June 2024. Core sales had previously posted a 0.23% month-over-month increase and a 4.2% annual gain in May.
“June’s numbers indicate that prolonged uncertainty surrounding the economy, tariffs and trade policy could be pushing consumers to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach with their household budgets,” said National Retail Federation president and CEO Matthew Shay. “Spending was down across almost all sectors. While shoppers still have the capacity to spend on priorities, the economy is gradually slowing and there has been an impact on the psyche of consumers.”
Shay noted that while the recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill" has helped stabilize sentiment around broader economic growth, unresolved trade issues continue to weigh on consumer confidence. “Restrictive trade policies remain a significant headwind,” he said.
For the first half of the year, total retail sales increased by 4.66% and core sales rose by 4.93% compared to the same period in 2024, indicating that consumer spending remains resilient overall despite recent headwinds.
The June data showed widespread monthly declines across major retail categories, with the exception of digital products, which saw growth. Year-over-year performance, however, was positive in seven of nine sectors:
- Digital products (e.g., e-books and games) rose 0.26% month over month and surged 24.11% year over year.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores declined 0.13% month over month but jumped 8.52% from a year ago.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.31% from May but up 3.47% from June 2024.
- General merchandise stores slipped 0.15% month over month and gained 3.18% year over year.
- Grocery and beverage stores fell 0.13% monthly but rose 2.59% annually.
- Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.22% on the month and up 2.71% over the year.
- Electronics and appliance stores dropped 1.03% from May but remained 2.43% above last year’s levels.
Two categories posted year-over-year declines:
- Furniture and home furnishings stores slid 1.04% month over month and 1.14% year over year.
- Building and garden supply stores fell 0.76% on the month and 5.33% annually.
Unlike traditional survey-based Census Bureau reports, the Retail Monitor leverages anonymized credit and debit card transaction data, enabling real-time analysis without the need for monthly or annual revisions.
More information is available at nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.
