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WASHINGTON – Retail sales in the U.S. rebounded in October, signaling a strong start to the holiday shopping season, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions. The report, released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF), showed a significant recovery after a sluggish September, as consumers moved beyond concerns tied to port strikes and other economic uncertainties.
“Healthy spending resumed in October as consumers continued to benefit from this year’s job gains and higher wages,” said Matthew Shay, President and CEO of the NRF. “Inflation is mostly limited to services at this point, and prices for some retail goods are actually falling. October sales have set the stage for a good start to the holiday shopping season.”
The Retail Monitor reported that total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, increased by 0.74% on a seasonally adjusted basis from September to October and were up 4.13% year-over-year. This represents a significant bounce from September’s 0.32% monthly decline and modest 0.55% annual growth, which was dampened by geopolitical tensions, East and Gulf Coast port disruptions, and the expiration of student loan relief programs.
The core retail sales figures—which exclude restaurants, auto dealers, and gas stations—were even stronger, with a month-over-month increase of 0.83% and a 4.59% rise compared to October 2023. This year-over-year gain marks the largest jump since August 2023, when core sales rose by 4.76%.
Overall, for the first 10 months of 2024, total sales are up 2.13% year-over-year, while core retail sales have risen by 2.42%.
The October rebound was broad-based, with gains seen in seven out of nine retail categories compared to last year. Leading the charge were online sales, clothing stores, and health and personal care stores, which showed robust growth both monthly and annually:
- Online and Non-Store Sales: Up 1.84% month-over-month and a staggering 19.38% year-over-year.
- Clothing and Accessories Stores: Despite a slight monthly dip of 0.57%, annual sales surged by 8.56%.
- Health and Personal Care Stores: Increased by 1.45% from September and 8.35% over the previous year.
- General Merchandise Stores: Modest monthly growth of 0.05%, with annual sales up 5.51%.
- Grocery and Beverage Stores: Rose by 0.87% month-over-month and 3.76% year-over-year.
- Building and Garden Supply Stores: Up 1.69% monthly and 3.12% annually.
- Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores: Increased by 0.58% month-over-month and 1.87% year-over-year.
Some sectors faced headwinds, however:
- Electronics and Appliance Stores: Down 0.81% monthly and 0.64% annually.
- Sporting Goods, Hobby, Music, and Book Stores: Notched a monthly gain of 2.7%, but annual sales fell by 1.23%.
Unlike survey-based estimates from the Census Bureau, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor utilizes anonymized credit and debit card data from Affinity Solutions, providing a more accurate and timely snapshot of consumer spending without the need for revisions.
With consumer sentiment buoyed by strong job markets and wage gains, the outlook for the upcoming months looks good, signaling a likely robust end to 2024.
