WASHINGTON — Retail sales posted healthy year-over-year gains in November, keeping the first half of the holiday shopping season on pace to meet the National Retail Federation’s forecast, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions.
“Retail sales showed healthy year-over-year gains in November while month-over-month data was largely flat,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Shoppers looking for online deals may have held back a bit until Cyber Monday, which landed in December due to a late Thanksgiving, likely shifting some spending. Consumers are focusing on value and spending carefully during the holiday period, and retailers are offering products at competitive prices to fit every budget. We remain confident in our 2025 holiday forecast as well as our retail sales projections for the full year.”
Total retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline stations increased 0.12% seasonally adjusted from October and 4.53% unadjusted year over year. That followed gains of 0.6% month over month and 5% year over year in October. Core retail sales—excluding autos, gas, and restaurants—were essentially flat, down 0.04% month over month but up 4.66% year over year.
For the first 11 months of 2025, total sales rose 5.06% and core sales 5.22% compared with the same period last year. The results support NRF’s forecast for holiday sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% from 2024, topping $1 trillion. Full-year retail sales are projected to increase up to 3.7% to as much as $5.48 trillion.
Unlike the Census Bureau’s survey-based reports, the Retail Monitor draws on anonymized credit and debit card transaction data and does not require later revisions.
Sector Performance
Most retail sectors posted year-over-year increases in November, though month-to-month comparisons were mixed. Digital products led the gains, rising 14.81% year over year despite a slight 0.37% monthly dip. Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores advanced 8.96% year over year, while clothing and accessories rose 8.16%.
Grocery and beverage stores saw steady growth, up 0.74% month over month and 3.89% year over year. General merchandise stores gained 3.1% from a year earlier but slipped 0.73% from October.
Health and personal care stores inched down 0.19% month over month yet grew 1.31% year over year. Electronics and appliance stores were off 2.94% month to month but edged up 1.01% year over year, while furniture and home furnishings stores remained nearly flat, up 0.01% monthly and 0.53% annually. The only category to decline on both measures was building and garden supplies, down 1.74% month over month and 9.38% year over year.
Overall, the November data points to a steady consumer sector entering the final stretch of the holiday season, with spending patterns reflecting both economic caution and enduring demand for value-driven purchases.
