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WASHINGTON – Retail sales posted a robust jump in December 2024, fueled in part by an unusual calendar alignment that shifted two major holiday shopping days into the month, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
“Growth rebounded strongly in December from a misleadingly weaker November as the result of the final two days of the busy Thanksgiving holiday weekend being included in December’s data,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Calendar issues aside, value-conscious customers showed enthusiasm for celebrating loved ones with the right gifts at the right price points for their budgets in December. Households are in good financial shape amid low unemployment, growing income, and continued deceleration of inflation for goods.”
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, showed a 1.74% month-over-month increase in total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, and a notable 7.24% year-over-year increase. Core retail sales, which further exclude restaurants, rose by 2.19% month over month and surged 8.41% year over year. These figures starkly contrasted with November’s tepid performance, which saw a 0.19% decline month over month and a modest 1.43% annual increase.
The shift in Thanksgiving timing, with Cyber Monday and the Sunday after Thanksgiving falling in December rather than November, gave the final month of the year a meaningful boost.
Sector Highlights
The Retail Monitor revealed gains across nearly all retail categories, underscoring the broad strength of consumer spending:
- Online and Non-Store Sales: The standout category, online sales rose 4.49% month over month and an eye-popping 33.05% year over year, reflecting the continued dominance of e-commerce.
- Clothing and Accessories Stores: This category saw a 4.07% monthly increase and a 14.47% annual rise, buoyed by strong holiday demand for apparel.
- Electronics and Appliances: Sales climbed 3.25% month over month and 10.23% year over year as consumers snapped up gadgets and home electronics.
- General Merchandise Stores: Up 3.24% month over month and 9.77% year over year, driven by holiday deals and promotions.
- Sporting Goods, Hobby, Music, and Book Stores: Sales rose 3.81% month over month and 7.43% year over year, highlighting interest in leisure activities and gifting.
Even traditionally slower categories posted gains, with health and personal care stores rising 1.85% month over month and grocery and beverage stores seeing a 0.59% increase. The only category to see a monthly decline was building and garden supply stores, down 0.09%, though it still grew 0.85% annually.
Positive Outlook
The NRF reiterated its confidence in its holiday sales forecast, projecting 2024 retail sales to rise between 2.5% and 3.5% year over year. The organization emphasized the strength of consumer finances, citing low unemployment, rising wages, and easing inflation as key factors supporting spending.
Final figures for December’s retail performance will be confirmed by the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday. Unlike survey-based estimates, the Retail Monitor relies on anonymized credit and debit card data, providing timely and accurate insights without the need for later revisions.
For more information, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.
