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WASHINGTON—U.S. retail sales showed solid growth in October, highlighting robust consumer spending at the beginning of the holiday season. A new National Retail Federation (NRF) survey revealed that 45% of holiday shoppers had begun their purchases before November, reflecting a growing trend of early shopping. The federation is projecting sales in November and December to increase yearly by the same 2.5%- 3.5% range.
According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, overall retail sales increased 0.4% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis and 2.8% year-over-year on an unadjusted basis. The gains mark a continuation of September’s strong performance, where sales rose 0.8% month-over-month and 2% year-over-year.
Real-time transaction data from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor supported the Census Bureau’s findings. October’s core retail sales rose 0.83% month over month and 4.59% year over year. Unlike survey-based data, these insights are derived from anonymized credit and debit card purchases, offering a more immediate and accurate snapshot of consumer spending.
Core retail sales, which exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants, were unchanged month-over-month in October but rose 5.4% year-over-year. For the first ten months of 2024, core sales grew 3.5% compared to the same period in 2023, aligning with NRF’s annual retail growth forecast of 2.5% to 3.5%.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz attributed the positive momentum to consumer confidence and lower energy prices. “October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” Kleinhenz said. “Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Retail remains a cornerstone of the U.S. economy, contributing $5.3 trillion annually to GDP and employing over 55 million Americans. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay emphasized the importance of the sector. “Retail drives innovation, sustains communities, and fuels economic growth,” he said.
