Tariff uncertainty clouds port import forecasts despite July rebound

WASHINGTON — Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to rebound this month after a double-digit drop in late spring but is forecast to fall again after previously paused tariffs take effect, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” NRF vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, and the latest extension to Aug. 1 is greatly appreciated. Nonetheless, uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs. Tariffs are paid by U.S. companies, not foreign countries or businesses, and ultimately drive up prices for American families while impacting the availability of products. It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for U.S. retailers.”

President Trump on Monday signed an executive order delaying “reciprocal” tariffs until Aug. 1 but also announced tariffs of up to 40% on more than a dozen countries. The president has indicated he will send out additional letters to other countries. There are also questions about what happens with tariffs on China in August, even though a deal was recently signed.

“A flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable. Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in May, the latest month for which final data is available. That was down 11.8% from April and 6.4% year over year. It was also the first year-over-year decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since 1.93 million TEU in May 2024.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for June, but Global Port Tracker projects the month at 2.06 million TEU, up 5.9% from May but down 3.7% year-over-year. July is forecast at 2.36 million TEU, up 2.1% year over year; August at 2.08 million TEU, down 10.4% year over year; and September at 1.82 million TEU, down 19.9% year over year for the lowest monthly total since 1.87 million TEU in December 2023. October is forecast at 1.81 million TEU, down 19.2% year-over-year, and November at 1.7 million TEU, down 21.3% from the previous year, resulting in the lowest total since 1.78 million TEU in April 2023. While the falling aggregative totals in August through November are related to tariffs, the significant year-over-year percentage declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes.

The current forecast projects the first half of 2025 at 12.63 million TEU, representing a 4.5% year-over-year increase. That’s better than the 12.54 million TEU forecast last month, but still below the 12.78 million TEU forecast earlier this year before the April tariffs announcement.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, the NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports, such as the Global Port Tracker.