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NEW YORK — An improving economy and increased confidence in personal finances are among the factors driving upbeat holiday sales forecasts this year.
An improving economy and increased confidence in personal finances are among the factors driving upbeat holiday sales forecasts this year.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects a 4.1% increase in combined November and December sales at retail stores, which represents a slight increase over 2013’s actual holiday sales gain of 3.1%.
Holiday sales gains have averaged 2.9% over the past 10 years and have not increased at more than a 4% rate since 2011, according to NRF.
The consulting firm Deloitte also has a positive view of the upcoming holiday season, with a projected sales increase of between 4% and 4.5% through the November to January holiday shopping period. In dollar value, Deloitte predicts total holiday sales will be in the range of $981 billion to $986 billion, and the NRF forecast has sales (excluding restaurants) rising to roughly $620 billion in 2014.
"Retailers could see a welcome boost in holiday shopping, giving some companies the shot in the arm they need after a volatile first half of the year and an uneventful summer," NRF president and chief executive officer Matthew Shay says.
According to Accenture’s annual holiday shopping survey, one-quarter of consumers expect to spend more in 2014, compared with 20% of shoppers who had higher spending plans in 2013. The Accenture survey found that discount retailers "continue to be the top destination for shoppers," with 71% of respondents expecting to shop at a discount store this holiday season.
In addition, consumer enthusiasm and anticipation for Black Friday shopping has reached its highest level in eight years, according to the Accenture survey.
A record summer for import cargo is another indication that retailers are expecting a busy holiday season. NRF and Hackett Associates stated in the October issue of their Global Port Tracker report that import cargo volume is expected to “see a final surge and set a new monthly record” in October of 1.53 million containers. The old record was 1.52 million in August.
The volume of import cargo has been "well above average each month since spring," NRF says.
