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In the retailer and supplier communities these are truly the days of diminished expectations. So it is that at the approach of Christmas, retailers have accepted the fact that the holiday selling season now coming to a close will be one just as soon forgotten as remembered.
In the retailer and supplier communities these are truly the days of diminished expectations. So it is that at the approach of Christmas, retailers have accepted the fact that the holiday selling season now coming to a close will be one just as soon forgotten as remembered.
And sales gains for the season of less than 2% or 3%, once frowned on, have become the reluctant objective.
As previously written here and elsewhere, many causes for these diminished expectations can be accurately cited. The failure of the economy to shift into a higher gear continues to rein in truly acceptable sales gains. The lack of excitement at retail has transformed Christmas into a gigantic sales event, to the extent that customers have stopped trying to grasp the markdown arithmetic — or even if the sales are worth the mathematical struggle to understand them.
The weather, so often blamed for lackluster retail business, in this case deserves the label. So erratic has the weather been thus far this year that Americans across the country are even now counting the days until spring — though winter has only officially begun. When the frigid temperatures and daily precipitation prevent shoppers from shopping for the winter gear they need, the problem is serious indeed.
Other factors contribute as well to the dreary holiday selling season. Foremost among them is the uncertain state of mass retailing in America. Many industry observers expressed dismay that Walgreens CEO Greg Wasson announced that he would be retiring just as the Walgreens-Alliance Boots alliance is coming together. Helena Foulkes is only now beginning to exert an impact at the CVS chain she was named to head earlier this year. Doug McMillon is only now becoming comfortable enough as CEO of Walmart to speak publicly about his efforts to reintroduce the arts of merchandising and marketing to a retailer that had largely forgotten them.
Speaking of Walmart, the departure of Duncan Mac Naughton as that retailer’s chief merchant would, in any other year, have sent seismic waves throughout the mass retailing business. In the current state of affairs, however, it was viewed as merely one more change in a rapidly changing business, one that has seen America’s two most important mass retailers name new CEOs within the past few months.
At Target, Brian Cornell, that retailer’s new CEO, has just begun emerging from his Minneapolis office to tease the media with some of his ideas for reviving the company — and, indeed,Target’s most recent quarterly results indicate that his presence and sense of confidence and permanency have already begun to pay dividends.
Change, many believe, has been long overdue in mass retailing, a business long admired for the stability of its management. But never have so many dramatic changes come so quickly or so dramatically. Walgreens, Walmart, Target, CVS — no companies in any sector of business in America have been so stable for so long. If anything, the number of new faces at the head of these retail companies have helped the business, dissolving one’s ability to focus on any one change — or any one retailer. Truth is, however, that these four retailers — and several others — are at critical turning points in their respective histories. How they perform in the new era of diminished expectations over the next year will determine in large part how significant their presence will be in the retail community going forward.
How will they perform? That’s the question industry people have begun asking. And as yet there are no easy answers. Simply because each faces daunting challenges going forward.
For Walgreens, the challenge will come in assimilating an acquisition (or a partnership) that is unique in the history of mass retailing in America. Many Walgreens people do not as yet understand Alliance Boots and the role it will play at Walgreens going forward. In this case, understanding is the key to assimilation. And the job of the new permanent CEO, whenever he or she is named, will be grasping the place of Alliance Boots in the Walgreens scheme of things.
For Walmart, the task is simpler: Returning that retailer to the days when it dominated U.S. retailing. The question: Is this possible?
Target’s task is similar: Bringing back its glory days. The question is similar too: Can a retailer that so quickly lost its luster and momentum regain it so easily — or regain it at all?
For CVS, that old question continues to nag at it: Does health care have a significant place in mass retailing? Indications at this point are that it does. But it is still too early to tell for sure.
