WASHINGTON — Faced with concerns over rising prices and the potential impact of tariffs, U.S. families are kicking off back-to-school shopping earlier than ever, according to new data released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
Nearly 67% of K-12 shoppers had already started their school-related purchases by early July—up from 55% last year and the highest share recorded since NRF began tracking the trend in 2018. Notably, more than half (51%) of families reported starting earlier specifically due to fears that tariffs could drive prices higher later in the season.
“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights. “As shoppers look for the best deals on clothes, notebooks and other school-related items, retailers are highly focused on affordability and making the shopping experience as seamless as possible."
While early shopping is on the rise, the survey found that 84% of shoppers still had at least half of their purchases left to make. The top reasons for the delay include waiting for better deals (47%), not yet knowing which items are needed (39%), and spreading purchases across a broader budget window (24%).
Retailers’ July sales events—such as Amazon Prime Day, Walmart Deals, and Target Circle Week—have become major milestones in the back-to-school shopping calendar, with 82% of shoppers planning to use those promotions to check items off their lists.
Despite signs of financial caution, total projected back-to-school spending is expected to rise slightly to $39.4 billion, up from $38.8 billion in 2024, as more families make purchases across a broader set of categories. Per-family spending, however, is expected to dip modestly to $858.07 from $874.68 last year.
Electronics remain the top spending category for K-12 families, averaging $295.81 per household and totaling $13.6 billion in projected spend. Clothing and accessories follow at $249.36 ($11.4 billion total), shoes at $169.13 ($7.8 billion), and basic school supplies at $143.77 ($6.6 billion).
The most popular destinations for back-to-school shopping include online retailers (55%), department stores (48%), discount stores (47%), and clothing stores (41%).
Meanwhile, back-to-college shoppers—who typically spend more—are also showing signs of economic sensitivity. Average household spending is projected to dip to $1,325.85, down from $1,364.75 in 2024. However, with more students and families shopping this year, total expected back-to-college spending will rise to a record $88.8 billion, up from $86.6 billion.
Top college categories include electronics ($309.50 per household, $20.7 billion total), dorm furnishings ($191.39, $12.8 billion), clothing and accessories ($166.07, $11.1 billion), food ($140.24, $9.4 billion), and personal care items ($117.95, $7.9 billion).
“This increase can largely be attributed to higher-income households, while lower-income families are pulling back across categories because of economic uncertainty,” said Phil Rist, executive vice president of strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics. “Regardless of income, families want to ensure their students are set up for success.”
Online shopping remains the top destination for college purchases (48%), followed by discount stores (36%), department stores (35%), and campus bookstores (27%). Notably, discount store traffic has grown five percentage points over last year as shoppers seek better value.
NRF has conducted its annual back-to-school and back-to-college survey since 2003. This year’s survey of 7,581 consumers was conducted July 1–7 and has a margin of error of ±1.1 percentage points.
