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CHICAGO—Discretionary spending took a hit in early November as consumer focus shifted toward the U.S. presidential election and its aftermath. According to Circana, a leading advisor on consumer behavior, general merchandise revenue dropped 9% for two consecutive weeks, ending November 9, 2024. These declines marked the weakest performance for general merchandise sales in the past year, spanning nearly all tracked industries.
Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana, noted that while election-related uncertainty has subsided, consumers now face new distractions heading into the holiday season. “Now that some of the election uncertainty has passed, consumers can focus on holiday shopping, but that comes with another set of distractions,” Cohen said. He pointed to a barrage of early promotions as both a driver of consumer interest and a potential disruptor to the typical shopping rhythm.
While overall discretionary spending remained sluggish, promotional activity provided a bright spot for prestige beauty, which saw growth during the week ending November 9. Circana’s Holiday Purchase Intentions study found that consumers still associate Black Friday with the best deals of the season. However, early Black Friday promotions appear to have failed to meaningfully lift demand, as general merchandise unit sales for the week ending November 16 were down 3% year-over-year, with a 4% decline in sales revenue.
This holiday season is shaping up to differ from previous years in terms of both consumer behavior and shopping trends. Circana attributes these changes to a value-driven mindset among consumers, who carefully weigh when and how to act on deals. Some shoppers are purchasing early out of fear of inventory shortages, while others are holding out for deeper discounts. This dynamic is expected to influence not only the pace of holiday sales but also how success is measured across industries.
“The competition for the consumer’s attention keeps expanding,” Cohen explained. “Toys now compete with beauty, tangible gifts compete with experiences, and top shopping days compete with other activities, like football, on Black Friday. Marketers must break through the distraction and convince consumers not only of the value they are getting but also of the importance of acting now.”
As retailers navigate a shifting consumer landscape, the interplay of promotions, demand, and consumer hesitation will shape the trajectory of this year’s holiday shopping season.
