CHICAGO — Circana LLC’s latest Circana Compass insights show the U.S. retail food and beverage (F&B) market performing in line with earlier expectations for 2025, with a forecast that points to continued, though measured, growth into 2026.
For 2025, Circana now expects U.S. F&B dollar sales to rise 3.2%, fueled by a 3% increase in price/mix and a modest 0.2% gain in volume. Those figures closely match the company’s 2024 projections of 2% to 4% sales growth. While higher prices for commodities such as cocoa and coffee have contributed to retail price growth, other categories are seeing more moderate increases.
“We’ve observed slowing volume growth in the first half of 2025, with a modest increase of 0.4%,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor for Circana.
“Consumers are prioritizing in-home food and beverage spending while redefining ‘value’ with an emphasis on convenience and functionality. With these evolving behaviors, the CPG industry must strategically identify ways to stimulate demand and remain profitable. Circana continues to provide the data-driven insights necessary to guide these decisions.”
Outlook for 2026
Circana projects that in 2026, U.S. food and beverage prices will rise by 3% to 5% due to ongoing cost pressures, competitive retail pricing, and targeted promotional strategies. Volume growth is expected to remain tight, with a range of 1% decline to 1% gain. The combination is expected to deliver dollar sales growth between 3% and 5%, underscoring the sector’s resilience despite shifting consumer habits.
Circana pointed to three key factors shaping the 2026 U.S. market:
- Value – increasingly personalized, with robust performance from mass, club, and value retailers, as well as continued e-commerce growth from major players.
- Health – a shift toward higher-protein diets, reduced alcohol and snack consumption, and more products featuring premium, health-driven ingredients.
- Demographics – tighter budgets among low-income and Hispanic households, alongside declining birth rates and slower immigration trends, are influencing category performance.
Over the past five years, compounded inflation has driven a cumulative 34% increase in average retail food and beverage prices, making value and functionality key factors in purchasing decisions going forward.
