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Circana: Rising prices weaken holiday sales momentum

Elevated prices are eroding consumers’ ability to spend on discretionary items, weakening holiday sales, even during crucial retail weeks.

CHICAGO — U.S. retail sales remained steady in November, but the crucial holiday shopping season failed to build significant momentum as consumers continued to focus on essentials amid rising prices, according to new data from Circana.

For the four-week period ending Nov. 29, 2025, overall retail sales revenue increased by 1% compared to the same period last year, while unit demand remained flat. Spending on necessities continued to surpass discretionary categories, emphasizing ongoing pressure on household budgets.

Retail food and beverage sales revenue grew by 2%, with unit sales increasing by 1%. Non-edible consumer packaged goods saw a 1% rise in dollar sales, though unit demand declined by 1%. Discretionary general merchandise continued to face difficulties, with dollar sales falling 2% and unit demand dropping 4% year over year.

“Consumer prioritization is resulting in very specific pockets of growth at deeper levels within retail that are falling short of creating broader momentum,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “Flat discretionary general merchandise sales so far in the fourth quarter of 2025 are revealing the pressure on consumers’ wallets, as well as the diminished impact of the peak holiday shopping weeks.”

November ended with Black Friday week, during which discretionary general merchandise dollar sales decreased by nearly 3% and unit sales fell by 5%. Cyber Week, starting in December, saw dollar sales decline by 1.3% and unit demand drop 4.4%. Together, Black Friday Week and Cyber Week led to a 2% drop in dollar sales and almost a 5% decrease in units compared with last year for the two weeks ending December 6, 2025.

Circana observed that only a few categories outperformed last year’s results. Categories demonstrating relative strength during both Black Friday and Cyber Week included toy building sets, beauty products, and arts and crafts, reflecting ongoing integration of in-store and e-commerce promotions, timing, and product focus.

Instead of chasing blockbuster new items, consumers are increasingly drawn to lifestyle-oriented gifts related to hobbies and personal interests. Circana said this shift highlights how holiday shopping has evolved beyond traditional deal-driven behavior.

“The distinction between Black Friday and Cyber Monday has been lost,” Cohen said. “Shopping during this holiday season has become less about coveting the deal and more about curating ideas around what to give as gifts. Uniqueness, innovation, convenience, and socialization are now all critical to the formula for holiday selling, and this mindset will carry into 2026 planning.”

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