CHICAGO – Led by high demand for collectibles, trading cards, licensed merchandise, and fandom-driven purchases, dollar sales increased 20% from January through September 2026, compared to the same period last year, according to Circana LLC. Unit sales increased by 18%, while average selling price rose 2%.
"The toy industry is benefiting from a meaningful evolution in consumer behavior," said Kristen McLean, vice president of client insights for Circana’s entertainment knowledge group.
"Consumers are no longer engaging with toys solely as children's products. They're collecting, displaying, and using them to express personal interests, and participating in communities centered around sports, gaming, entertainment, and pop culture. While the core children’s market remains vital, these behaviors are expanding both who buys toys, and the reasons they buy them."
Ten of the 11 “super categories” tracked by the firm posted year-over-year dollar growth, with eight also showing corresponding unit sales growth.
Fastest growing in dollar terms were explorative and other toys, up 75% and led by sports cards, and games & puzzles, up 45% and driven by strategic trading cards including Pokémon and Magic: The Gathering.
Other callouts include arts and crafts, up 23% and boosted by slime-making kits, and building sets up 17% largely on demand for the LEGO Botanical Collection.
The industry's strongest gains continue to come from categories rooted in collecting, fandom, creativity, and ongoing engagement, while many of the industry's largest declines are concentrated in outdoor, active, and seasonal play segments.
One of the biggest drivers of growth this year has been the continued expansion of toys as hobby and lifestyle purchases. Consumers aged 12 and older accounted for the majority of toy industry growth through September. Led by adult demographics, collectible toy sales grew by 56%, while licensed toys increased 27%.
The trend extends across categories as consumers seek products that offer engagement beyond traditional play. Trading cards, collectibles, building sets, action figures, and other fandom-driven products continue to attract consumers looking to connect with their favorite brands, characters, teams, and communities. Among licensed properties, sports emerged as one of the year's defining themes. Fueled by global enthusiasm around soccer and major sporting events, properties tied to World Soccer, MLB, and NFL franchises delivered significant gains, while Pokémon remained the industry's top property and one of its fastest-growing franchises.
Toys increasingly a form of personal expression
Beyond collecting, toys are increasingly becoming a form of personal expression. Consumers are increasingly embracing products that allow them to personalize, accessorize, and showcase their interests both online and in their daily lives.
This trend is evident in the explosive growth of squishy toys, which generated $671 million in sales this year through September – six times more than a year ago. Keychains, bag charms, plush clips, and similar accessories have also gained popularity as consumers use toy-inspired products to personalize backpacks, handbags, and other everyday items. In fact, keychain sales are up more than 200% year to date.
“Toys are intersecting with fashion, social media, and lifestyle trends in ways we haven't seen before," said McLean. "Social platforms are helping turn squishies from simple sensory toys into highly shareable forms of self-expression, fueled by surprise formats, character-driven designs, and impulse-friendly price points.”
The path to purchase is changing as rapidly as the products themselves. Social platforms are increasingly influencing toy discovery, trend formation, and purchasing decisions.
Sales through TikTok Shop nearly triple
Toy sales through TikTok Shop nearly tripled this year, reaching $1.6 billion and making the platform the fourth-largest toy retailer in the United States, underscoring the growing influence of social commerce on toy discovery and purchasing. The channel now accounts for nearly 5% of all toy sales, reflecting consumers' growing willingness to discover and purchase products directly through social media.
The impact extends beyond a single platform. Nearly half of consumers report purchasing products after seeing them on social media, reinforcing the increasingly important role content creators, influencers, and digital communities play in shaping toy demand.
Circana expects many of the same growth drivers that have defined 2026 to remain in focus at year’s end. Collectibles, licensed merchandise, building sets, sports-related products, arts and crafts, and fandom-driven toys are expected to be among the season's strongest performers.
Demand is expected to remain strong for products that deliver emotional connection, collectability, creativity, and entertainment value. Promotions and value will remain important, but social discovery and fandom engagement are expected to play an increasingly influential role in shaping holiday purchasing decisions.
"The industry enters the holiday season with strong momentum and a broader consumer base than it has traditionally served," McLean said. "Consumers continue to prioritize products that connect with their passions and interests, whether that's sports, gaming, entertainment, or nostalgia. The toys that successfully tap into those emotional connections are likely to be the biggest winners this holiday season."
