CHICAGO — As cocoa shortages continue to lift chocolate prices, shoppers are responding with sharper price ceilings, increased deal-hunting, and a growing willingness to switch brands or try alternatives, according to Numerator’s Verified Voices survey of 500+ verified chocolate and cocoa buyers.
Awareness rising, expectations for transparency
More than half of shoppers (57%) say they’re now aware of the cocoa shortage, up 11 points since March. While seven in ten haven’t personally encountered empty shelves, those who have are more apt to shop at another store, switch brands, or buy non-chocolate alternatives. Seventy-five percent want brands to clearly explain the reasons behind price increases.
Mark Baumgartner
Shoppers set hard price ceilings
Two in three shoppers report noticing higher prices, and 45% say they’re buying less chocolate as a result. Asked how much more they would accept before changing behavior, respondents set clear thresholds:
- 34% would tolerate up to $0.99 more
- 30% would accept $1.00–$1.99 more
- 18% would accept $2.00–$2.99 more
If prices climb past those limits, consumers say they’ll switch brands or move to substitutes. Promotion sensitivity is high: 86% are more likely to buy chocolate when it’s on sale at current prices.
Substitutions on the rise—driven by price, not quality
With 79% reporting no change in chocolate taste or quality, many shoppers remain open to lower-cost alternatives, such as cookies, pastries, or white chocolate. Intent varies by demo:
- Older shoppers: 28.6% of those 55+ would avoid trying alternatives—almost twice the rate of younger groups.
- Lower income: 61.5% of shoppers earning <$40k would try cookies, surpassing middle-income households.
- Urban and low-income shoppers: 21% of urban shoppers (index 165) and 19% of lower-income shoppers (index 150) report that they would turn to homemade chocolate recipes if prices were to rise further.
Top planned actions if prices climb: reduce consumption, hunt for promotions, and switch to less expensive brands.
Premium vs. non-premium: Momentum shifts down-tier
Price pressure is tilting the market toward value: 57% say they’re more likely to choose non-premium chocolate if costs rise further. Those sticking with premium cite taste, ingredients, and indulgence; 17% of Millennials and 16% of parents point to packaging and presentation as reasons to stay upscale—signaling opportunities for targeted positioning.
What it means for brands and retailers
- Communicate clearly: Three in four shoppers want transparent explanations for price changes.
- Lead with affordability: Loyalty is fragile when prices cross personal thresholds; sharpen value packs and price-point architecture.
- Merchandise to the mission: Elevate promotions and endcaps for deal-sensitive shoppers; feature lower-cost substitutes where appropriate.
- Segment with intent: Tailor offers and creative by income, life stage, and urbanicity; premium players can lean into taste, ingredients, and gifting-ready packaging.
Source: Numerator Verified Voices survey of 500+ verified chocolate/cocoa buyers.
