As grocery retailers and CPG companies navigate a persistently uncertain growth environment, the conversation has shifted from scale at any cost to precision, productivity and smarter commercial execution – with renewed urgency around restoring unit growth and improving return on investment.
That theme was front and center during a recent Coffee Chat with MMR at the FMI Midwinter Executive Conference in San Diego, where John Carroll, president of connected commerce at Acosta Group, shared his perspective on what’s changing in the marketplace – including how connected commerce, more disciplined use of data and analytics, and a newly announced partnership with CommerceIQ are reshaping how brands and retailers pursue growth.
After years of inflation-driven dollar growth, retailers are now facing a more complex challenge.
“We’ve been growing dollar sales since the pandemic, but units have been the issue,” Carroll said. “What we’re seeing now, especially over the last six months, is pressure on both unit sales and dollar sales. That’s a big issue for retailers and for CPG companies.”
For Carroll, getting back to sustainable growth means focusing on both sides of the equation.
“You have to do both,” he said. “Units matter from a productivity standpoint and for the health of the basket. More units mean more products in the shopper’s basket, and that’s critical for long-term growth.”, and smarter commercial execution—with renewed urgency to restore unit growth and improve
Connected Commerce Is No Longer Optional
One of the clearest shifts Carroll highlighted is where growth is coming from.
“If you look at almost any category, most of the growth is coming from online,” he said. “In some categories, 100% of the growth is being driven digitally.”
That reality is reshaping how Acosta Group works with clients. Rather than treating e-commerce as a separate channel, the company is helping brands connect digital and physical retail in a single commercial strategy.
“A good commercial strategy starts with understanding how the consumer shops,” Carroll explained. “You need an online strategy and a brick-and-mortar strategy that work together, because that’s how consumers actually shop today.”
That convergence is increasingly visible in how brands plan with retailers.
“Smart CPGs are planning with merchants not just for the store, but for digital as well,” Carroll said. “They’re thinking about retail media, micromarketing, and how those investments show up in-store through displays, end caps and execution.”
Retail Media’s Next Chapter: Accountability and Incrementality
As retail media networks proliferate, Carroll emphasized that the question is no longer whether to invest, but where and how.
“Everyone has a retail media network now,” he said. “The challenge is understanding which ones actually drive incremental growth for your brand.”
That focus on incrementality is shaping Acosta’s approach.
“We don’t want to target the same shopper over and over across different networks,” Carroll said. “The goal is to send the right message, to the right shopper, on the right network, and understand the incremental return on that investment.”
While technology adoption in grocery has historically been slow, Carroll believes AI is different.
“AI is probably the fastest-adopted technology in human history,” he said. “We’re not seeing this come top-down. It’s bubbling up from the people actually doing the work.”
From sales reps using generative tools to plan calls, to space planners and supply chain teams using AI-assisted analytics, the shift is already under way.
“I’ve never seen anything happen this fast,” Carroll said. “Every retailer and every CPG company we’re meeting with is asking the same questions: What are we doing with AI? How do we go faster? How do we make better decisions?”
Turning Retail Media Data Into Real-Time Decisions
As brands grapple with the growing complexity of retail media and digital commerce, Carroll said speed and accountability are becoming just as important as scale — and that’s where technology partnerships play a critical role.
Last month, Acosta Group announced a new alliance with CommerceIQ aimed at helping brands make smarter, faster decisions across digital commerce and retail media.
“This partnership enables us to strategically leverage CommerceIQ’s advanced technology and AI-driven capabilities with our own omnichannel expertise,” Carroll said. “The result is an ability to act faster, think bigger, and deliver stronger results for our clients, which is critical in today’s fast-moving marketplace.”
Carroll noted that one of the biggest challenges brands face today is managing the sheer volume and velocity of decisions required across commerce platforms, media networks, and digital shelves.
“Brands are making dozens of decisions per minute across sales, media, and content,” he said. “The ability to unify those signals into coordinated dashboards and workflows is what turns data into action.”
By combining Acosta Group’s connected commerce services -- including omnichannel account management, digital shelf management, retail media and shopper marketing -- with CommerceIQ’s AI-driven platform, Carroll said brands gain clearer visibility into what’s driving incremental performance, not just activity.
“We don’t just want more data,” Carroll said. “We want better decisions – decisions that help brands invest in the right places, with the right messages, and with confidence that those investments are actually delivering growth.”
The Foundation: Getting the Data Right
Despite the excitement around AI, Carroll stressed that success depends on fundamentals.
“The first thing you have to do is get your data right,” he said. “We all have massive amounts of data -- shipment data, syndicated data, shopper data -- but it has to work together.”
Only then does AI deliver real value.
“Once the data is connected, you can layer in AI models and agents and start asking smarter questions,” Carroll said. “That’s when the insights come quickly. Technology is only as good as the data behind it.”
For Acosta Group, the ultimate goal of investing in connected commerce and AI-enabled capabilities is to free teams to focus on higher-value work.
“In the past, we spent days crunching data,” Carroll said. “Now the technology does that, and our teams can spend more time with clients: solving problems, shaping strategy and driving growth.”
And despite all the talk of automation, Carroll is clear about what won’t change.
“This is still a relationship business,” he said. “Walking stores, sitting across the table from merchants – that will always matter. What AI gives us is faster insight so we can be more strategic and more creative in how we serve retailers, brands and shoppers.”
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