ARLINGTON, Va. — Despite recent government data showing a modest decline in food-at-home prices, new U.S. tariffs could soon reverse that trend, industry and academic experts cautioned in a recent discussion hosted by FMI—The Food Industry Association.
Andy Harig, FMI’s vice president of tax, trade, sustainability, and policy development, and Dr. Ricky Volpe, a professor of food business at Cal Poly, said the grocery industry’s slim margins and the nature of U.S. food imports make it nearly impossible for food retailers to shield consumers from the impact of rising trade barriers.
According to Volpe, roughly 80% of the food consumed in the U.S. is produced domestically. The remaining 20%—items such as coffee, seafood, cocoa, bananas and certain produce—cannot be easily or cost-effectively grown here. Volpe used cucumbers as an example, explaining that the US imported 90% of them because domestic growing conditions were not optimal. He estimated that shifting production domestically would result in significant price increases.
“For the United States to ramp up cucumber production dramatically… we estimate that the retail price of cucumbers… would at least double, if not triple,” he said.
Harig noted that grocers operate on profit margins of just 1.7%, leaving little room to absorb higher costs. “When costs go up, the ability… to mitigate them throughout the supply chain is maybe more challenging for us than it might be in other industries,” he said.
Both experts warned that tariffs on raw materials like steel and aluminum could have a broad ripple effect. These metals are essential for packaging and food processing equipment, meaning their rising costs will eventually filter through to store shelves. Volpe called it a “double whammy” for seafood, which would face tariffs on both the imported product and its packaging.
Surveys suggest shoppers share those concerns. Harig pointed to FMI data showing that 55% of consumers list tariffs as a top worry for food prices, recent poll indicating food costs remain the leading concern for voters.
Harig and Volpe advocated for a targeted exemption process for critical food items that lack viable domestic substitutes, a step they said could protect consumers from unnecessary price hikes. Without such measures, they warned, the cumulative effect of tariffs on specialty imports and basic manufacturing inputs is “kind of unavoidable… it’s coming down the road in the next few months.”
