SAN MATEO, Calif. — Holiday 2025 is shaping up to be a season of contrasts, as U.S. consumers balance the desire to celebrate with the realities of inflation, rising living costs and mounting credit card debt. According to a new survey conducted by The Harris Poll for Rakuten Rewards, the leading cash back shopping platform, Americans are sharply divided on spending plans: 28% intend to spend less this season, while 26% plan to spend more.
This financial split underscores the growing polarization of the American household economy — and signals both challenges and opportunities for retailers seeking to engage cost-conscious but motivated consumers.
Families feel pressure to spend, even amid strain
The research found that families with children are planning to increase holiday spending at nearly twice the rate of child-free households (38% vs. 19%), reflecting both optimism and obligation. Many parents say they feel compelled to “make the holidays happen,” even as higher prices for food, gas and utilities weigh on budgets. Nearly half of all respondents (46%) said rising monthly expenses will affect their holiday shopping plans, and only 37% expressed confidence in affording nonessential purchases.
Despite the strain, shoppers remain determined to celebrate, albeit with more strategic, incentive-driven behaviors.
“Consumers are navigating a volatile economy and increased financial stress this holiday season,” said Wendy Bergh, chief marketing officer at Rakuten Rewards. “While there is still a strong desire to celebrate and give gifts to loved ones, shoppers are incredibly cautious with where and how they spend. Retailers need to deliver incentives that go beyond a ‘great deal’ — they need to offer something shoppers simply can’t pass up.”
Debt expected to rise across income levels
Nearly one in four shoppers (24%) anticipate taking on more credit card debt to cover holiday purchases this year — a trend consistent across income brackets.
- 24% of those earning under $50,000 expect to increase debt,
- 26% of those earning $50,000–$75,000,
- 24% of those earning $75,000–$100,000, and
- 24% of those earning above $100,000.
The pattern is particularly stark among larger households: families with children are more than twice as likely as those without (37% vs. 15%) to finance gifts with additional debt. The findings suggest that the emotional pull of the holidays may override fiscal caution for many families.
Stacking incentives becomes the new normal
As shoppers seek to stretch every dollar, 75% said the ability to “stack” multiple incentives — such as free shipping, coupons and cash back — is an important factor in purchase decisions. Nearly one in four (26%) said they won’t buy a gift unless they can stack deals at checkout.
Retailers are responding with an increasingly layered approach to promotions:
- 50% will offer free shipping and returns,
- 49% are emphasizing loyalty programs, and
- 44% are investing more in rewards and cash back offers.
Bergh noted that these strategies align with consumer expectations:
“Consumers want to shop with confidence. Retailers will need to offer stackable rewards and incentives to give shoppers the best, most-personalized deals possible. This means offering incentives like Cash Back with Rakuten on top of discounts, sales events, free shipping, and more. When a shopper earns Cash Back on top of a discount, they feel that confidence they need to make a purchase.”
Retailers optimistic despite consumer caution
Even as households tighten budgets, retailers remain confident. Eighty-three percent expect to meet their Q4 sales goals — buoyed by strong results in 2024, when 93% achieved their targets. While 79% of retailers recognize that consumers are more focused on affording essentials, only 3% believe shoppers will fully switch to value brands. Nearly one-third (28%) expect consumers to seek their favorite brands at discount or off-price retailers instead, signaling a shift toward value-driven premium shopping.
“Retailers have every reason to be optimistic,” Bergh said. “Last year proved that the right mix of value and engagement can drive impressive results, even in uncertain times. The brands that succeed this season will be those that listen closely to shoppers, personalize their incentives, and deliver meaningful value that builds loyalty well into the future.”
A data-driven holiday outlook
The Rakuten/Harris Poll findings suggest that while Americans remain cautious, they’re also pragmatic, ready to shop strategically, compare deals and maximize rewards. Retailers that adapt with flexible, personalized incentives and stackable offers will be best positioned to capture share during an uneven but promising holiday season.
Methodology:
The consumer survey was conducted online within the U.S. from August 21–25, 2025, among 2,087 adults aged 18 and older. The retailer survey was conducted August 25–30, 2025, among 107 U.S. retailer marketers. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. The data is accurate to within ±2.5 percentage points for the consumer survey and ±9.3 percentage points for the retailer survey at a 95% confidence level.
Source: Rakuten Rewards, October 9, 2025.
For more information about Rakuten, click here.
