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WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation on Tuesday forecast that holiday retail sales in November and December will increase between 3.6% and 4% over last year, to total $678.75 billion.
“Our forecast reflects the very realistic steady momentum of the economy and overall strength of the industry,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Although this year hasn’t been perfect, especially with the recent devastating hurricanes, we believe that a longer shopping season and strong consumer confidence will deliver retailers a strong holiday season.”
NRF’s retail sales figures exclude automobiles, gasoline and restaurants.
There is one more shopping day between Thanksgiving and this year, the NRF noted, adding that this year’s predicted growth would meet or exceed last year’s growth of 3.6% and the five-year average of 3.5%.
The retail trade group said that while recent hurricanes are not expected to have a significant long-term effect on the economy, the storm’s effect are adding uncertainty to predictions about the economy. NRF is therefore issuing this year’s forecast as a range rather than the usual fixed percentage. But overall the prospects look good, according to the association.
“Consumers continue to do the heavy lifting in supporting our economy, and all the fundamentals are aligned for them to continue doing so during the holidays,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “The combination of job creation, improved wages, tame inflation and an increase in net worth all provide the capacity and the confidence to spend.”