WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation forecasts that U.S. retail sales will increase by 4.4% in 2026, reaching $5.6 trillion, highlighting ongoing consumer resilience despite a complex economic environment.
The outlook, announced during NRF’s State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event, reflects a new forecasting model created in collaboration with Oxford Economics. The projection surpasses the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual growth rate of 3.6%.
“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We expect that consumer resilience to continue into 2026, with household spending once again serving as a pillar of economic support.”
NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews warned that geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty might impact the outlook, but he emphasized that the basic economic fundamentals still support growth. He pointed out that spending is still mainly driven by higher-income households, while lower-income consumers remain more limited.
The forecast predicts modest tailwinds in the first half of the year from larger tax refunds linked to the Working Families Tax Cut Act, along with easing inflation pressures by the third quarter. While labor market growth is expected to slow, unemployment is likely to stay below 4.5%.
NRF also emphasized that consumer sentiment has remained historically disconnected from actual spending patterns, with income growth, household balance sheets, and labor market stability continuing to support retail demand.
The forecast relies on NRF’s definition of core retail sales, which excludes autos, gasoline, and restaurants, and is reported in nominal terms, although the organization expects a significant portion of growth to reflect real increases rather than inflation alone.
For frequently asked questions regarding NRF’s annual forecast, visit here.
