WASHINGTON — After two consecutive months of decline, U.S. retail sales inched upward in March, fueled by consumer concerns over rising tariffs and broader economic uncertainty, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions.
Retail sales, excluding autos and gasoline, rose by 0.6% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and climbed 4.75% year over year. Core retail sales — excluding autos, gas, and restaurants — increased by 0.4% from February and were up 5.07% compared to March 2024. Overall, total retail sales for the first quarter of 2025 were up 4.52% year over year, with core sales up 4.96%.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay attributed the modest rebound to pre-emptive shopping by consumers anticipating price hikes due to tariffs. “Retail sales increased in March but only moderately, and the spending came before the president’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement,” Shay said. “The pullback we’ve seen the past few months comes despite strong economic fundamentals. A major factor appears to be driven by the uncertainty caused by tariffs. March’s increase is partly the result of stocking up to get ahead of tariffs. With the economic outlook unclear and the situation fluid, consumer sentiment is weakening, and many consumers are shifting disposable income into savings.”
In early March, 46% of consumers reported stocking up on goods such as appliances and clothing out of concern that prices would rise, according to a survey by Prosper Insights & Analytics for NRF. This sentiment came on the heels of President Trump’s February announcement of tariffs targeting China, Canada, and Mexico. A subsequent announcement on April 2 introduced a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S. trading partners and new “reciprocal” tariffs, escalating tensions, particularly with China.
March sales were up across the board on a yearly basis, led by digital products, general merchandise stores, and sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores.
Sales were up in five out of nine categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:
- Digital products were up 0.79% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 27.62% year over year unadjusted.
- General merchandise stores were up 0.48% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.62% year over year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were unchanged month over month seasonally adjusted but up 6.63% year over year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.29% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.94% year over year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.39% year over year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.65% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.05% year over year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.76% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 2.37% year over year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.01% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.81% year over year unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores were down 0.81% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 0.78% year over year unadjusted.
Unlike traditional survey-based data, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor uses real-time anonymized credit and debit card transaction data from Affinity Solutions. This methodology eliminates the need for later revisions, providing a clearer picture of consumer behavior as it happens.
For further details, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.
