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Outlook for retail sales is scaled back by NRF

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WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation (NRF) cut its 2015 forecast for retail sales growth in the United States, citing a slowdown in the year’s first half that the federation had not foreseen.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) cut its 2015 forecast for retail sales growth in the United States, citing a slowdown in the year’s first half that the federation had not foreseen.

NRF now estimates that U.S. retail sales will grow 3.5% this year, down from the 4.1% year-on-year growth it had forecast in February.

Sales grew 2.9% during the first half of 2015, NRF noted. It now expects a growth rate of 3.7% over the year’s final five months.

Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at NRF, the largest retail trade association in the world, attributed the weak first half to bad winter weather, work disruptions at West Coast ports and a stronger dollar, among other factors.

Matthew Shay, NRF’s chief executive officer, blamed the lackluster consumer spending on the government. "Too much time has been spent crafting rules and regulations that almost guarantee negative consequences for consumers and American businesses alike," Shay remarked.

Thomson Reuters noted that its same-store sales index for July was likely to show a modest 0.1% increase from June. Excluding the drug store sector, the same-store sales index was expected to decline by 0.5%, according to Reuters.

Costco Wholesale Corp. reported net sales of $8.6 billion for July, an increase of 1% from the corresponding period the year before. Comparable-store sales were up 7% in the period through August 2, the Issaquah, Wash.-based retailer reported.

Excluding the negative impact of gasoline price deflation and foreign exchange, July’s comparable-store sales rose 6% in the United States and 7% internationally, according to Costco, with sales of food and sundries increasing in the mid-single-digit range. Costco noted that transaction size was down about 4.3% in July, and that store traffic increased 4% in the period.

Rite Aid Corp. reported that July same-store sales rose 2.4% on higher pharmacy sales. Pharmacy same-store sales grew 3.4%, as front-end comps rose 0.1%.

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