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WASHINGTON – Retail spending saw a slight monthly decline in February as tariff-related concerns impacted consumer confidence, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation. However, year-over-year sales continued to grow, indicating resilience in the broader economy.
“Consumer spending dipped slightly again in February due to the combination of harsh winter weather and declining consumer confidence driven by tariffs, concerns about rising unemployment and policy uncertainty,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Unease about the probability of inflation and paying higher prices for non-discretionary goods has the value-conscious consumer spending less and saving more. But for the moment, year-over-year gains reflect an economy with strong fundamentals.”
Thorvardur de Shong
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, decreased by 0.22% seasonally adjusted from the previous month but experienced a 3.38% unadjusted increase year-over-year. This follows January’s decline of 1.07% month-over-month and a year-over-year gain of 5.44%.
The core retail sales metric, which excludes restaurants, automobile dealers, and gasoline stations, also dropped 0.22% month over month in February but increased by 4.11% year over year. January’s core sales had decreased 1.27% month over month while growing 5.72% year over year.
For the first two months of 2025, total sales rose 4.41% compared to the same period last year, with core sales up 4.91%. This surpasses the 3.6% annual growth recorded in 2024.
The decline in monthly retail sales coincided with tariff announcements by President Donald Trump. In early February, the administration imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports and 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. While the latter tariffs were postponed until April 2 for most goods, the China tariffs were increased to 20%, fueling economic uncertainty.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped from 71.7 in January to 64.7 in February, marking the second consecutive monthly decline after five months of slight gains.
Unlike the U.S. Census Bureau’s survey-based retail data, the Retail Monitor utilizes anonymized credit and debit card transaction data from Affinity Solutions. This provides more immediate and precise insights without the need for later revisions.
Despite the overall monthly decline, six out of nine retail categories posted year-over-year gains, with online sales, health and personal care stores, and general merchandise stores leading the way. However, most sectors saw monthly declines. Key sector highlights include:
- Online and other non-store sales: +0.46% month over month, +36.51% year over year.
- Health and personal care stores: -0.44% month over month, +8.33% year over year.
- General merchandise stores: -0.42% month over month, +6.2% year over year.
- Grocery and beverage stores: -0.07% month over month, +4.08% year over year.
- Clothing and accessories stores: -0.78% month over month, +3.75% year over year.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores: +0.93% month over month, +3.57% year over year.
- Electronics and appliance stores: -0.43% month over month, -0.06% year over year.
- Building and garden supply stores: -1.02% month over month, -3.34% year over year.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores: -1.01% month over month, -3.67% year over year.
For more details, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.
