NEW YORK — Retailers are preparing for the weakest seasonal hiring in more than a decade, signaling potential trouble for the all-important holiday shopping period. Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported on Wednesday that it expects fewer than 500,000 retail positions to be added in the final three months of the year, the lowest seasonal hiring total since the 2009 recession and down 8% from the same period last year.
“Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires,” said Andy Challenger, a senior vice president and workplace expert at Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The muted outlook reflects a confluence of challenges, including lingering inflation, looming tariffs, and retailers’ growing reliance on automation and existing staff. “While we could see a late hiring push if holiday sales surprise to the upside, the cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge,” added Challenger. “This year may be more about doing more with less.”
Unlike in past years, major retailers, including Target, Macy’s, Burlington Stores, Aldi, and 1-800-Flowers, have yet to announce seasonal hiring plans. Target has indicated it will instead increase hours for existing staff and rely on its “On-Demand team” of roughly 43,000 employees who pick up shifts as needed but did not disclose a hiring figure. Last year, Target announced plans to hire 100,000 people for the holiday season.
A few retailers have released numbers. Spirit Halloween plans to bring on 50,000 workers, matching last year's total, while Bath & Body Works expects 32,000, slightly below last year’s 32,700. Amazon and UPS typically reveal holiday hiring goals later in the season.
The slowdown mirrors broader weakness in the U.S. labor market, which added just 22,000 nonfarm jobs in August, far below expectations. Economists say persistent inflation, high interest rates, and record credit card debt are weighing on consumers. Meanwhile, consulting firms PwC and AlixPartners are forecasting lower holiday spending and only modest growth in retail sales.
Thorvardur de Shong
With fewer workers on the shop floor, industry analysts warn that shoppers might face longer lines, fewer associates available for assistance, and smaller seasonal selections. Whether late hiring announcements come through could depend on whether holiday sales exceed expectations — but for now, retailers seem to be preparing for a cautious season.
