WASHINGTON — Retail spending slowed in September after two strong summer months, but year-over-year growth remained healthy heading into the holiday season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions.
“Retail sales dipped in September as consumers hit the pause button after two solid months of back-to-school spending,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation (NRF). “Amid continued economic uncertainty, consumers opted to preserve spending power in preparation for the important holiday season. While month-over-month spending data has fluctuated as consumers have reacted to changing circumstances, year-over-year gains show robust growth and signal momentum as we head into the holidays.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, fell 0.66% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis but rose 5.42% year over year in September. That compares with 0.5% and 6.81% increases, respectively, in August.
Core retail sales—excluding restaurants as well as auto and fuel categories—were down 0.49% from August but up 5.72% from a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2025, total sales were up 5.12%, while core sales rose 5.32%.
Unlike Census Bureau data, which relies on survey responses, the Retail Monitor draws on anonymized credit and debit card transactions from Affinity Solutions, providing a more immediate snapshot that does not require monthly or annual revisions.
Sector Trends
Sales increased year over year in all but one major category, led by digital products, sporting goods, and apparel, though monthly comparisons were mixed:
- Digital products (e.g., e-books, games) up 0.52% MoM and 21.35% YoY
- Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores up 0.74% MoM and 8.81% YoY
- Clothing and accessories stores down 1.06% MoM but up 7.35% YoY
- General merchandise stores down 0.62% MoM but up 5.52% YoY
- Grocery and beverage stores down 0.76% MoM but up 4.79% YoY
- Health and personal care stores up 0.38% MoM and 4.65% YoY
- Electronics and appliance stores down 0.12% MoM but up 4.43% YoY
- Furniture and home furnishings stores down 1.87% MoM but up 0.56% YoY
- Building and garden supply stores up 0.53% MoM but down 1.2% YoY
The NRF said the results underscore continued consumer resilience despite inflationary pressures and shifting spending priorities. The trade group noted that shoppers appear to be recalibrating budgets ahead of the critical holiday period.
For more information, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.
