
NRF chief economist: The consumer is not feeling great
American consumers remain uneasy amid growing concerns over tariffs and economic policy, according to NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
American consumers remain uneasy amid growing concerns over tariffs and economic policy, according to NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
In early March, 46% of consumers reported stocking up on goods such as appliances and clothing out of concern that prices would rise.
“NRF urges Congress to move swiftly to ensure a stable and competitive tax code that supports continued economic opportunity.”
“This legislation is an important step to help prevent ORC from infiltrating local communities across the country.”
“Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end,“ says NRF's Jonathan Gold.
Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, Americans are prioritizing Easter celebrations, and spending is projected to surge across a wide range of categories.
“Tariffs are a tax paid by the U.S. importer that will be passed along to the end consumer. Tariffs will not be paid by foreign countries or suppliers.”
“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 — bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
Retailers are particularly concerned about a proposed port service fee that could be passed onto cargo owners, adding to supply chain costs.
“These results show that households are apprehensive and carefully navigating lingering inflation and turmoil related to changing economic policies,“ says NRF's Chief Economist.
Despite a monthly decline, six of nine retail categories showed year-over-year gains, led by online sales, health and personal care stores, and general merchandise.
“As long as these tariffs are in place, Americans will be forced to pay higher prices on household goods,” says NRF's David French.
“Weak consumer perceptions and uncertainty from the lack of clarity regarding future government policies and regulations can significantly hinder business operations.”
According to the Census Bureau, overall retail sales in January declined 0.9% seasonally adjusted month over month.
NRF has issued a statement about the Trump administration’s plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners.
Beehler brings extensive experience in retail policy and most was head of policy communications at Alibaba Group.