WASHINGTON — Imports at the nation’s major container ports are projected to remain below year-ago levels through the first half of 2026 as retailers continue to navigate shifting trade policy and geopolitical risks, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
While the U.S. Supreme Court recently struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), new tariffs introduced by the Trump administration — along with the possibility of additional trade actions — have left retailers facing a highly uncertain planning environment.
“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs but other tariffs have already been announced and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses.”
Gold added that while retailers support efforts to strengthen domestic manufacturing and hold trading partners accountable, tariffs ultimately raise costs across the supply chain.
“Tariffs drive up costs for businesses and prices for consumers,” he said. “They should be used in a strategic manner.”
Trade policy uncertainty intensified after the court ruling last month when President Donald Trump announced a temporary 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for 150 days. The administration has also indicated the rate could rise to 15% and is considering launching new Section 301 trade investigations targeting additional imports.
At the same time, retailers are monitoring geopolitical developments that could affect global supply chains, including the emerging conflict involving Iran.
“In addition to tariffs, we are closely watching the situation in Iran and the potential impact it will have on retail supply chains,” Gold said.
For now, the conflict has not materially affected container traffic to the United States, according to Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates.
“The immediate impact on containerized traffic to the United States is not likely to be substantial since little U.S.-bound container cargo is sourced from the region,” Hackett said.
However, he cautioned that the broader economic effects could become significant if tensions persist.
“While it is too early to measure in the monthly data, increasing oil and gasoline prices will inevitably drive structural inflation if the conflict persists,” Hackett said. “That, in turn, could squeeze consumer discretionary spending and U.S. manufacturing, and ultimately drive down import volumes in the longer term.”
Container volumes already began the year below 2025 levels. U.S. ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.08 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in January — up 3.8% from December but down 6.4% year over year. Data for the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami had not yet been reported at the time of the analysis.
February imports are projected to total 2.01 million TEU, a decline of 1.3% compared with the same month last year. Volumes are forecast to fall more sharply in March, reaching 1.91 million TEU, down 11.2%.
Imports are expected to remain below year-ago levels through April, when volumes are forecast at 2.03 million TEU, a decrease of 8.1%. Activity is then projected to rebound slightly in May and June, reaching 2.09 million TEU and 2.1 million TEU, respectively, representing year-over-year increases of 7% and 6.8%.
Those gains, however, largely reflect easier comparisons following the sharp drop in imports last year after the announcement of the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025.
July imports are forecast at 2.2 million TEU, down 8% year over year.
Taken together, the forecasts would bring total container imports for the first half of 2026 to approximately 12.21 million TEU, down 2.5% from the 12.53 million TEU recorded during the same period in 2025.
Full-year import volumes in 2025 totaled 25.4 million TEU, a slight decline of 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
The Global Port Tracker report provides import data and forecasts covering major U.S. gateways, including Los Angeles and Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
For retailers and importers, the report underscores how shifting trade policies and geopolitical developments continue to shape supply-chain planning in 2026.
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