CHICAGO — The U.S. toy industry is entering the holiday season with renewed momentum. After two years of flat performance, toy sales from January through September rose 7 percent in dollars compared to the same period last year, according to Circana. The increase was driven by a 4 percent rise in average selling price and a 3 percent lift in unit sales.
Collectible toys and licensed toys are fueling growth. Collectibles posted a 33 percent increase, led by strategic trading card games, sports trading cards and action figure collectibles. Licensed toys grew 14 percent, with strong themes across sports, witches and wizards, animals, movies and video games.
Seven of 11 toy supercategories experienced dollar gains, and six also saw unit growth. Games and puzzles grew the fastest, mainly driven by Pokémon. Explorative and Other Toys followed, boosted by increasing demand for sports trading cards. Building Sets ranked third, with Formula 1 playing a major role in its growth. The biggest declines were in Outdoor and Sports Toys, Plush, and Dolls.
As the industry enters the busy holiday season, Circana’s new Holiday Purchase Intentions study indicates that spending levels will remain close to 2024, with a range of a 1 percent decline to a 2 percent increase. However, unit sales might drop by as much as 2.5 percent during November and December.
Circana vice president and toy industry advisor Juli Lennett says three trends are shaping fourth-quarter performance:
• Consumers are shopping earlier. Fewer shoppers plan to wait until December. Manufacturers and retailers need to capture spending sooner, before holiday budgets are used up.
• Shoppers expect higher prices. More than 80 percent of consumers anticipate price increases. Value messaging and availability can influence where and when they make a purchase.
• Value outweighs volume. Consumers plan to spend 3 percent more overall, but 31 percent say they will buy fewer items, opting for meaningful purchases and affordable indulgences.
Lennett also points to the influence of economic headlines, social media and nostalgia.
“The U.S. consumer, and their willingness to absorb tariffs, will be the key factor shaping Q4 performance,” Lennett said. “The toy industry has a unique advantage and tends to be resilient in turbulent times as toys serve as emotional anchors for families, offering joy and a welcome distraction in our lives. The industry also benefits from trends like adult self-gifting, nostalgia and digital wellness.”
