CHICAGO – Despite strong momentum leading into the anticipated August peak, U.S. school supply spending is running behind last year. Sales of office and school supplies across physical and digital retail channels totaled $1.98 billion during the first six weeks of the back-to-school shopping season (June 29–Aug 9), a 2% decline from 2024, according to retail tracking data from Circana, LLC.
While overall revenue is down, week-over-week sales have steadily accelerated, with spending in the sixth week (ending Aug. 9) rising 17% — the fifth consecutive week of double-digit sequential growth fueled by state tax-free holidays and school start dates.
“The slow start to the back-to-school season, and the early shifts in purchase behavior highlight the consumer’s current spending concerns,” said Ben Arnold, industry advisor, Office Supplies at Circana. “Whether they are waiting for better promotions, opting for different brands, or buying larger or smaller pack sizes, consumers are looking for ways to cut their costs without foregoing school supply necessities.”
Shifting Consumer Behavior
- Price pressures: Average selling prices are up 1% while unit sales are down 3%.
- Private-label growth: Store brands now account for 29% of revenue and 48% of unit sales, at less than half the average price of national brands.
- Bigger pack preference: Multi-pack sales are gaining traction, with 10-pack pens up 4% and 24-pack pencils up 6%. Chalk packs of 48 pieces increased by 33% compared to last year.
- Channel shift: E-commerce is outpacing the broader market, with unit sales up 11%, even as brick-and-mortar stores continue to account for the majority of overall sales volume.
Outlook
Circana’s Future of Office Supplies report projects 2025 office supply sales to end 2% below last year, an improvement from 2024’s 5% decline. Back-to-school is expected to be a relative bright spot, with third-quarter revenue forecasted to dip just 1% from last year, driven by a 3% rise in average prices and a 4% decline in unit sales.
Arnold added, “A higher-cost environment across retail and higher average prices of school and office supplies will inhibit unit demand for some consumers. But school supplies are nondiscretionary purchases during this time of year, and this year’s consumer will clearly go where they will get the best value.”
