WASHINGTON — Retail sales increased significantly in December, marking a strong holiday season that came close to the upper end of industry expectations, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor released by the National Retail Federation.
According to Retail Monitor data, holiday sales from November 1 through December 31 increased by 4.1% year over year, closely matching NRF’s forecast of a 3.7% to 4.2% rise in 2024 and total spending just over $1 trillion. Census Bureau figures for December have not yet been released.
Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, increased by 1.26% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis in December and rose 3.54% year over year, marking a significant acceleration from November’s modest 0.12% monthly gain. Core retail sales, which also exclude restaurants, grew by 1.6% month over month and 3.58% year over year, reversing November’s slight monthly decline.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said consumers continued to prioritize holiday spending despite ongoing cost pressures. He noted that steady economic momentum helped support discretionary purchases, especially late in the season. A calendar shift also played a part, as a late Thanksgiving pushed Cyber Monday into December, adding an extra peak shopping day to the month’s results.
On a full-year basis, the Retail Monitor calculated total 2025 retail sales to be up 4.93% from 2024, with core sales increasing 5.08%, highlighting resilience in consumer demand across much of the retail sector.
Category results showed broad but uneven strength. December sales increased year over year in six of nine major retail categories, led by clothing and accessories, sporting goods, and digital products, all boosted by holiday gifting and promotions. General merchandise, grocery and beverage, and health and personal care stores also experienced annual gains, indicating steady traffic in both discretionary and everyday categories.
By contrast, electronics and appliance stores stayed mostly flat year over year, while furniture, home furnishings, and building and garden supply stores continued to face pressure, showing ongoing softness in housing-related spending and big-ticket purchases.
Unlike survey-based retail sales estimates, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor depends on anonymized credit and debit card transaction data gathered by Affinity Solutions and is not subject to monthly or yearly revisions. NRF combines this data with Census Bureau figures to monitor monthly retail performance and to guide its yearly and seasonal sales forecasts, including the important holiday period.
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