FMI: Food prices stabilize, but uncertainty remains

ARLINGTON, Va. — Grocery price inflation moderated in May, offering some relief to consumers even as challenges across the food supply chain continue to cloud the outlook for the months ahead, according to FMI – The Food Industry Association.

Citing the latest Consumer Price Index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FMI noted that food-at-home prices increased 0.1% in May and were up 2.7% over the past 12 months. The May increase marked a significant slowdown from April’s higher reading.

“Today’s CPI numbers for food at home represent a clear cooling from April’s elevated figure and should be welcome news for grocery shoppers facing an otherwise challenging inflationary environment,” said Andy Harig. “Food-at-home inflation increased just 0.1% in May and 2.7% over the past year, coming off what will hopefully be the peak in oil prices that drove food prices higher in April.”

Harig cautioned that several factors continue to push costs higher across the food supply chain. He cited weather-related concerns, including persistent drought, reduced snowpack in western states, and the potential impact of El Niño on agricultural production. He also noted that higher fertilizer costs earlier this year could continue to affect food prices later in 2026.

In addition, Harig said food manufacturers and retailers continue to face increased costs for certain imported ingredients, equipment and packaging materials as tariffs affect key supply chain inputs.

“Uncertainty around food price inflation will likely persist through the summer,” he said.

Despite those concerns, FMI said consumers increasingly recognize grocers' efforts to help manage household budgets. According to FMI research, 78% of grocery shoppers agree that grocery stores are working hard to provide options that help them stay within budget, up eight percentage points from December.

“Consumers continue to be understandably concerned about higher grocery prices,” said Steve Markenson. “The good news is that 78% of grocery shoppers agree that grocery stores try hard to provide them with options to help them stay within budget. This demonstrates that shoppers believe the food industry is on their side in navigating a challenging food price environment and is a partner in helping them stretch their food dollars.”

The May CPI data suggests that food inflation remains relatively contained amid broader economic pressures, though industry leaders continue to monitor weather conditions, input costs and trade policies that could influence grocery prices later this year.