WASHINGTON — Import cargo volumes at the nation’s major container ports are expected to continue declining into 2026 as tariffs and trade policy uncertainty persistently affect demand, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Regardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop.”
The administration has eased tariffs on certain food products, but the future of broader tariff policies remains uncertain. A pending Supreme Court case could invalidate tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, although the administration is likely to explore ways to reinstate them through other authorities.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said the effects are already visible across global trade flows.
“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” Hackett said. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”
NRF forecasts record holiday sales exceeding $1 trillion for the first time, increasing between 3.7% and 4.2% from 2024, but weakness in imports is expected to continue.
Port Volume Trends
U.S. ports monitored by Global Port Tracker handled 2.07 million TEU in October, a 1.8% decrease from September and a 7.9% drop compared to the previous year. November imports are projected at 1.91 million TEU, a 11.6% year-over-year decline, with December forecast at 1.86 million TEU, a 12.7% decline. If these figures are accurate, November and December will be the slowest months of 2025, following July’s peak of 2.39 million TEU. December would also be the lowest monthly total since June 2023.
While November and December are usually quieter for imports, the year-over-year decrease is heightened by late-2024 volumes driven by concerns over possible port strikes, as well as early 2025 pull-forward activity to avoid tariffs.
The first half of 2025 reached 12.53 million TEU, a 3.7% increase from the first half of 2024. The full-year projection is 25.2 million TEU, a 1.4% decrease from last year’s 25.5 million.
Outlook for 2026
Cargo is expected to see its first month-over-month increase in six months in January 2026, reaching an estimated 2 million TEU, though this would still be a 10.3% decline compared to the previous year. Projections for the following months remain unfavorable.
- February: 1.86 million TEU, down 8.5%
- March: 1.79 million TEU, down 16.8%
- April: 1.97 million TEU, down 10.9%
Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forecasts for major U.S. gateways on the West, East and Gulf coasts. The report is free to NRF retail members, with subscription information available at NRF.com/PortTracker.
