NRF forecasts import slowdown after busy summer
An early peak shipping season driven by tariff changes and supply chain uncertainty is winding down as retailers prepare for holiday demand.
Global Port Tracker
Retailers rush inventory ahead of potential August tariffs
Import volumes are set to hit a record high in July as retailers stock up for potential tariff hikes and upcoming back-to-school and holiday seasons.
Imports expected to stay below 2025 levels
Retailers remain cautious about inventory levels amid ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
U.S. import cargo volumes set to fall in first half of 2026
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said tariffs have brought “a global change in trade relations” that is weighing on import volumes.
NRF: Tariff uncertainty weighs on early-2026 imports
January imports are forecast at 2.11 million TEU, up from last month but down 5.3% from last year.
Global Port Tracker predicts steeper import decline into 2026
“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year.”
NRF Global Port Tracker: Import declines ahead
November and December are typically slower, but last year’s volumes rose due to port strike concerns, and early shipments this year to dodge tariffs shifted more cargo into earlier months.
Import outlook turns negative for holiday season
“The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.”