WASHINGTON — U.S. consumers are expected to spend $13.5 billion on Halloween this year, surpassing last year’s record as shoppers continue to embrace the holiday while taking a more deliberate approach to their budgets, according to the National Retail Federation.
The 2026 forecast is up from $13.1 billion in 2025, according to NRF’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. Consumers expect to spend an average of $115.14 per person, roughly even with $114.45 last year.
“Consumers continue to make Halloween a spending priority, but they are also approaching the season with affordability in mind,” said Allison Zeller, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights. “Shoppers are being thoughtful and strategic, looking for ways to maximize value throughout the season.”
Nearly three-quarters of consumers, 74%, plan to celebrate Halloween this year, compared with 73% in 2025 and 68% in 2019. The most popular activities include handing out candy, cited by 61% of consumers; wearing costumes, 50%; decorating homes or yards, 42%; carving pumpkins, 42%; and watching scary movies, 42%.
Halloween shopping is also starting earlier. Forty-nine percent of consumers expect to begin shopping in September or earlier, compared with 34% a decade ago. Among early shoppers, 42% said they look forward to the fall season and 34% consider Halloween one of their favorite holidays. Budget considerations are also driving the trend, with 23% shopping early to spread out their spending and 21% taking advantage of attractive prices or promotions.
Consumers remain sensitive to costs. If Halloween merchandise is more expensive than expected, 31% plan to comparison shop and 26% will seek coupons or sales. Another 34% expect to look for products they can reuse in future years or repurpose for other occasions.
Costumes are expected to generate the most spending at $4.4 billion, with 71% of Halloween shoppers planning to purchase them. Decorations are projected to account for $4.3 billion, while candy spending is expected to reach $4.1 billion, with 96% of shoppers buying sweets. Greeting card spending is forecast at $800 million, with 42% planning a purchase, up from 38% last year.
Discount stores remain the most popular destination for Halloween merchandise, attracting 39% of shoppers, followed by specialty Halloween and costume stores at 32% and online retailers at 27%. Local and small businesses are gaining ground, with 13% planning to shop those outlets, nearly double the 7% reported in 2016.
Artificial intelligence is also becoming part of the Halloween shopping process. Nearly half of consumers, 47%, said they are using AI platforms and tools to assist with Halloween shopping. Among the most common applications, 34% are using AI to brainstorm or develop ideas and 32% are seeking recommendations during product research.
“AI is becoming an increasingly common part of the consumer shopping journey,” said Phil Rist, Prosper executive vice president of strategy. “As consumers prepare for Halloween, many are using these tools to brainstorm costumes and decorating themes, explore production options and find inspiration that help bring their celebrations to life.”
Online searches remain the leading source of costume inspiration, cited by 32% of consumers. That is down from 37% last year and represents the lowest level in a decade. Retail stores and costume shops rank second for costume inspiration at 26% and are the leading source of decorating inspiration at 31%.
Costume spending includes an expected $1.5 billion for children, with Spider-Man leading the rankings at 4.6 million children, followed by superheroes at 2.3 million and princesses at 2.2 million.
Consumers are expected to spend $2 billion on adult costumes, led by witches, with 4.8 million adults planning to dress as one, and vampires at 4.2 million. Pet costumes are expected to generate another $920 million, with pumpkins, hot dogs and ghosts among the most popular choices.
NRF’s survey of 7,889 consumers was conducted Sept. 1-9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.
