CHICAGO — U.S. consumers expect to spend slightly less this holiday season, according to Circana’s 2026 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions Study. But even as financial pressures lead consumers to be more selective with their purchases, overall demand for gifts and celebrations remains strong.
The survey of 3,534 consumers found that their planned holiday spending averages $779 per person, down from $796 last year. At the same time, more than one in five shoppers expects to spend more than $1,000.
Circana forecasts that fourth-quarter holiday spending will range from a 1% decline from 2025 to a 2.5% increase.
“Consumers are not abandoning holiday spending, they’re becoming increasingly purposeful about where and how they spend,” said Kiara Barrett, head of global thought leadership at Circana.
“Throughout 2026, we’ve seen shoppers shift toward a new definition of value, one that extends beyond price alone. While affordability remains important, consumers continue to prioritize purchases that create meaningful moments, strengthen personal connections, improve everyday life, or simply deliver a sense of joy.”
Nearly three-quarters of consumers, or 74%, expect to adopt money-saving behaviors, including buying promotional items, seeking deals, choosing store brands and cutting back on spending in discretionary categories.
Most respondents say they plan to spend about the same amount as last year, while 29% expect to spend more. Among those anticipating higher spending, more than half cite rising prices as the primary reason, suggesting larger budgets will not necessarily translate into more purchases.
Higher costs are also reshaping holiday plans. More than one-third of shoppers say they are canceling or delaying holiday travel, with some redirecting spending toward celebrations, entertaining and gifts closer to home.
Circana said consumers are seeking convenient ways to host, including prepared foods, catering and retailer-supported meal solutions that help them balance budgets, time and holiday traditions.
Gift selection is becoming more deliberate as well. The company’s research on earlier gifting occasions in 2026 found consumers seeking products that support wellness, hobbies and fandoms, provide experiences or improve everyday life.
For the holiday season, shoppers are gravitating toward items that combine practical use with personal significance, including wellness products, personalized gifts, collectibles and connected home products.
“Consumers are redefining what makes a gift valuable,” Barrett said. “The winners this holiday season will be brands that help shoppers express care, connection, identity, and purpose — products with emotional relevance have the greatest opportunity to stand out.”
More than half of consumers plan to start holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, although Thanksgiving weekend, Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain important deal-shopping occasions. Circana cautioned that promotions alone may be insufficient to stimulate demand, as shoppers increasingly weigh product relevance and the overall shopping experience alongside price.
Digital channels are playing a substantial role in purchase decisions. Some 57% of consumers say they are likely to buy a product after seeing it on social media, rising to 82% among Generation Z shoppers.
Retailers and brands remain the most influential sources of holiday purchase inspiration on social media, while product-review videos influence purchasing decisions for nearly seven in 10 viewers. Consumers who have used artificial intelligence shopping tools also report strong openness to AI-driven recommendations.
For retailers and manufacturers, Circana said the findings underscore the need to pair affordability with convenience, personalization and products consumers consider worth buying.
“While economic pressures are creating a more selective shopper, they are not eliminating demand,” Barrett said.
