WASHINGTON — Import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is projected to steadily decline through the remainder of 2025, following a near-record surge this summer as retailers rushed to bring in goods before new tariffs took effect, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
Retailers front-loaded shipments to get ahead of trade disruptions, but the outlook for the rest of the year is sharply downbeat.
“We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with a number of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10% tariffs,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “We also continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success. These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”
Trade Policy in Flux
The decline follows weeks of escalating trade actions. A federal appeals court recently ruled against former President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs but allowed the tariffs to remain in effect pending a Supreme Court appeal. Tariffs on China were delayed until November 10 to allow negotiations, while a new 25% tariff on India took effect in late August, bringing the total additional tariff rate to 50%.
“Tariffs have had a significant impact on trade,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.”
Numbers Tell the Story
- July 2025: 2.36 million TEU (up 20.1% from June; second-busiest month on record).
- August (projected): 2.28 million TEU, down 1.7% year over year.
- September: 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8%.
- October: 1.95 million TEU, down 13.2%.
- November: 1.74 million TEU, down 19.7%.
- December: 1.7 million TEU, down 20.1%, the slowest pace since March 2023.
While monthly declines reflect tariff-driven uncertainty, comparisons to 2024 are amplified by last year’s elevated import levels amid concerns about potential port strikes.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year over year. The full-year forecast of 24.7 million TEU would mark a 3.4% drop from 2024’s 25.5 million TEU. January 2026 is projected at 1.8 million TEUs, down 19.1% year-over-year.
About the Report
Global Port Tracker, produced by Hackett Associates for NRF, tracks historical and projected container volumes for major U.S. ports, including Los Angeles/Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, Houston, and Savannah. The report is free to NRF retail members and available by subscription to others.
