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WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation (NRF) lowered its retail sales forecast for 2015, citing unexpectedly slow growth in the first half of the year, similar to the industry’s experience in 2014.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) lowered its retail sales forecast for 2015, citing unexpectedly slow growth in the first half of the year, similar to the industry’s experience in 2014.
The retail trade association projected in February that retail sales would grow 4.1% this year, but Wednesday’s revision lowers the forecast to 3.5%.
NRF estimates that retail sales grew 2.9% during the first half of 2015, and its forecast calls for a more positive 3.7% growth pace over the next five months. The estimates include general retail sales and non-store sales, and exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants.
"A confluence of events, including treacherous weather throughout the United States through most of the winter, issues at the West Coast ports, a stronger U.S. dollar, weak foreign growth and declines in energy sector investments all significantly and negatively impacted retail sales so far this year, and thus have changed how future sales will shape up for the rest of 2015," said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. "Additionally, household spending patterns appear to have shifted purchases toward services and away from goods, though this may be transitory. Additionally, a deflationary retail environment has been especially challenging for retailers’ bottom lines."