WASHINGTON – The National Retail Federation projects U.S. holiday spending to surpass $1 trillion this year as “resilient consumers continue to prioritize spending on family, friends and loved ones.”
NRF is projecting a 4.2% spending increase, better than the 3.1% increase last year that pushed holiday spending to $972 billion.
NRF defines the holiday period as beginning on November 1 and ending December 31. Its forecast is based on economic modeling using such indicators as consumer spending, personal income, employment, wages, inflation and retail sales trends. It excludes spending on gasoline, restaurant meals and automobile purchases to concentrate on “core” spending.
“Consumers have repeatedly shown that holidays and spending on loved ones are priorities, and that's been true for many years,” Matthew Shay, NRF’s president and chief executive officer, said on press call. “Our forecast points to another very strong holiday season, supported by maybe the unsung heroes of our economy, the resilient consumers.”
Inflation and rising energy prices are pressuring households, but their impact on spending varies considerably across the income spectrum, said Mark Matthews, NRF’s chief economist and director of research. Competitive pressures compel retailers to do what they can to limit price increases during the season, Matthews said, and the federation believes that half of its projected 4.2% rise in holiday spending will come from consumer spending growth.
“We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy,” he said.
