WASHINGTON — Import cargo volumes at the country’s major container ports are expected to slow down through the end of the year as retailers start the holiday season with shelves already stocked, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“We’ve spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain, but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “Store shelves are well stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like frontloading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves. Consumers should be able to find the products they want at prices they like.”
Tariff uncertainty persists. A 20 percent “fentanyl” tariff on China will reduce to 10 percent on November 10, and a planned increase in “reciprocal” tariffs on China has been postponed for one year. A separate 10 percent reciprocal tariff under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remains in effect, and the Supreme Court heard arguments this week on its legality.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said shifting tariff policy is making planning difficult.
“These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain,” Hackett said. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.”
Ports handled 2.1 million twenty-foot equivalent units in September, down 9.3 percent from August and down 7.4 percent from a year ago. Global Port Tracker projects:
- October at 1.99 million TEU, down 11.5 percent year over year
- November at 1.85 million TEU, down 14.4 percent year over year
- December at 1.75 million TEU, down 17.9 percent year over year
November and December are usually slower months, but last year’s volumes increased due to concerns about port strikes, and this year’s early cargo shipments to avoid tariff costs moved more cargo into earlier months.
Through the first half of 2025, ports handled 12.53 million TEU, an increase of 3.7 percent compared to the previous year. The full year 2025 is forecast to reach 24.9 million TEU, which is a 2.3 percent decline from 2024. Projections for early 2026 include:
- January at 1.98 million TEU, down 11.1 percent year over year
- February at 1.85 million TEU, down 9 percent
- March at 1.79 million TEU, down 16.7 percent
The report states that NRF forecasts holiday sales will increase by 3.7 to 4.2 percent compared to last year, reaching just over $1 trillion.
Thorvardur de Shong
Global Port Tracker monitors major U.S. gateways, including Los Angeles and Long Beach on the West Coast, New York and New Jersey on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is available free of charge to NRF retail members, and subscription information can be found at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.
